American Financial Group Inc

AFG remains in a Stage 2 advance within a long-term uptrend, with medium-term bias bullish despite a recent single-bar support failure marking a corrective reset. Price has stabilized and reclaimed the 9 EMA and 21 EMA on rising momentum, signaling favorable short-term timing. We recommend buying now to participate in the continuation, focusing on the prior consolidation zone near 138–139 where EMAs provide support. Primary risks include failure to sustain above the EMAs or a deeper correction exposing the 50 DMA.

• ↑Core EPS of $2.47 in Q1 2026 (+36% YoY) with combined ratio at 90.3%
• ↑$260M returned to shareholders in Q1; dividend yield of 0.83%
• ↓Growth factor weak, raising doubts on sustainable revenue expansion