UBS Group AG

UBS has moved into a Stage 3 distribution regime with a confirmed Blow-Off Top terminal pattern, signaling the end of the recent uptrend. The medium-term bias turns bearish under distribution dynamics, but price is consolidating near the 9/20 EMA zone without clear exhaustion or a rally into resistance. We defer selling and trim exposure, waiting for a bounce into prior highs or the flattened EMAs to execute. A decisive reclaim of recent highs and EMAs would invalidate this bearish count.

• ↑Net profit jumped 53% YoY to $1.2 bn, EPS $0.37.
• ↑Targeting $13.5 bn in Credit Suisse savings by 2026; $500 m identified.
• ↓Leverage ratio ~1.23x elevates risk if rates rise further.