VSE Corp

The stock has entered a Stage 3 distribution phase after breaking its uptrend highs, with short-term EMAs acting as resistance and volume biased toward distribution. Medium-term directional permission is bearish given the Bullish Exhaustion pattern, weakening momentum, and Stage Transition Risk toward Stage 4. Short-term timing favors a bearish execution now as price is rejected at the 9- and 21-EMA. Long-term the trend remains up, but it does not support bullish entries in the current distribution context.

• ↑Q1 revenue rose 27% YoY to $325M; adjusted EBITDA up 37% to $55M.
• ↑Adjusted EPS $1.17 driven by balanced distribution and MRO channels.
• ↓Stock at $232.93 trades ~39% above its $153.85 fair value.