Vistra Corp

VST remains in Stage 4 – Decline with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The medium-term bias is bearish, focusing on selling rallies into the dynamic resistance zone formed by the 9 EMA, 21 EMA, and 50 SMA. Price is currently extended above these EMAs without signs of exhaustion, suggesting patience is required before selling. We will trim positions into any rejection around the rising EMA cluster.

• ↑Q1’26 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B (+20% YoY) underscores operational efficiency.
• ↑Acquired 5,500 MW Cogentrix portfolio to boost generation capacity and demand coverage.
• ↓Negative book-to-price warns of overvaluation against net asset values.