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/AAP
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Advance Auto Parts Inc

Advance Auto Parts Inc

AAP
$53.16USD↑+0.06%+0.03 today

MARKET CAP

3.2B

P/E (TTM)

16.4x

FWD P/E

14.9x

DAY RANGE

$52 – $55

52W RANGE

$38
$70

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

In Stage 3 distribution, AAP has broken its prior HH/HL uptrend and is forming lower highs and lows below declining EMAs. The medium-term bias is bearish given the structural breakdown and high transition risk toward Stage 4, with no active patterns to the upside. Short-term momentum remains negative as price rejects rallies into the 9/21 EMAs, supporting a Sell Now stance into resistance.

  • ↑Q1 net sales $2.6B, up 3.5% YoY; pro segment led growth.
  • ↑Adjusted operating margin 3.8%, projected to reach 4.5% in 2026.
  • ↓Debt-heavy balance sheet; leverage ratio remains elevated at 2.06×.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) operates as a leading provider in the automotive aftermarket industry, engaging primarily with professional installers (DIFM - Do It For Me) and do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers. With over 4,300 locations, the company has made significant strides in enhancing customer engagement, particularly through improved inventory management and technological initiatives aimed at driving operational efficiency. Given the aging vehicle fleet in the U.S., the demand for automotive parts is poised to remain stable, positioning AAP in a favorable trend amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 net sales $2.6B, up 3.5% YoY; pro segment led growth.
  • ↑Adjusted operating margin 3.8%, projected to reach 4.5% in 2026.
  • ↑Investing $300M CapEx for 40–45 new stores to boost penetration.
  • ↑Aging US vehicle fleet underpins stable aftermarket demand.
  • ↑Advanced Rewards loyalty program and Argos brand expand customer retention.
  • ↑Attractive 2.62% dividend yield and solid balance-sheet quality enhance appeal.

Bear says

  • ↓Debt-heavy balance sheet; leverage ratio remains elevated at 2.06×.
  • ↓Profitability metrics underperform peers; earnings yield remains low.
  • ↓Inflation and fuel costs may pressure DIY consumer spending.
  • ↓Median analyst target $61 signals limited upside potential.
  • ↓Supply-chain improvements face execution risk, potentially delaying margin gains.
  • ↓High short interest denotes investor skepticism about growth outlook.

Investment themes with AAP

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-21-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we go to market with pro with really two major bodies of effort. The first is our outside sales team. We have hundreds of men and women who visit our customers every day. And then we have thousands of team members in our stores called Commercial Parts Pros.
  • There's investment in our people. There's energy. We brought our team together for the first time in a decade earlier this year. So that's certainly having an impact in terms of our ability to get business with pros.
  • I am pleased to report that our team delivered better than expected first quarter results. After a challenging start to the year for the industry, we began to see demand rebound in late February, led by our pro business.

Bear points

  • DIY will still be somewhat pressured.
  • hold rate as an objective. If we can't hold rate, then we're going to look to managing operating profit in terms of how we think about elasticity units and margin.
  • maintain rate as the costs come in, we're going to be focused on operating profit improvement as well.
Read full transcript analysis ›