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/AGM
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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp

AGM
$205.50USD↓-0.35%-0.73 today

MARKET CAP

2.2B

P/E (TTM)

12.0x

FWD P/E

10.3x

DAY RANGE

$203 – $210

52W RANGE

$137
$211

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

Despite extreme overbought conditions and emerging exhaustion clusters near recent peaks, the Stage 2 advancing regime remains intact with rising short- and medium-term EMAs and a clear higher-high/higher-low sequence. Price has retraced into the 9/21 EMA zone and held above the rising 50-SMA, offering a tactical pullback entry aligned with the medium-term bullish bias. Buying now on this pullback is favored, provided the EMAs and 50-SMA hold as support; a decisive break below these levels would invalidate this posture.

  • ↑Q1 revenue $110M (+14% YoY) with core earnings of $52M
  • ↑Record $34.8B business volume, including $1.5B net new in Q1
  • ↓Negative profitability trends may pressure margins and EPS
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM), also known as Farmer Mac, plays a crucial role in providing liquidity for American agriculture and rural infrastructure finance. As a government-sponsored enterprise, Farmer Mac serves as a secondary market for agricultural loans, supporting the liquidity needs of farmers and ranchers across the U.S. With a diverse portfolio encompassing farm loans, infrastructure financing, and renewable energy investments, it reflects a commitment to bolstering rural economies amid evolving economic conditions and market dynamics.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue $110M (+14% YoY) with core earnings of $52M
  • ↑Record $34.8B business volume, including $1.5B net new in Q1
  • ↑14th straight year of dividend hikes yields 3.2%; buyback extended
  • ↑Renewable energy financing up 18% to $2.9B diversifies earnings
  • ↑High leverage enhances growth capacity in favorable conditions
  • ↑Supportive earnings yield and strong book-to-price underpin valuation

Bear says

  • ↓Negative profitability trends may pressure margins and EPS
  • ↓Elevated leverage increases funding costs when rates climb
  • ↓Geopolitical tensions and input-price swings threaten loan quality
  • ↓Low institutional ownership signals broader market skepticism
  • ↓Negative size factor suggests scale and competitive challenges
  • ↓Regulatory shifts in renewable finance may disrupt growth

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-09-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Total revenues increased 14% year over year, with strong contributions from outstanding business volume growth, paired with disciplined funding execution and stable asset credit quality across all of our platforms.
  • We delivered $1.5 billion in net new business volume in the first quarter, bringing total outstanding volume to a record $34.8 billion as of quarter end.
  • Broad-based growth this quarter was supported by a strong pipeline, particularly in the farm and ranch segment, where we approved loans for the first quarter of 2026, approaching $1 billion, almost 30% above the fourth quarter of 2025, our previous record.

Bear points

  • agricultural borrowers continue to face tighter agricultural conditions driven by higher input costs, trade and tariff concerns, and low commodity prices.
  • tax and other incentives are set to expire,
  • While that could stress the ag economy and certain borrowers, it also could lead to the need for additional liquidity and capital.
Read full transcript analysis ›