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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJG
$253.90USD↓-0.79%-2.03 today

MARKET CAP

65.2B

P/E (TTM)

22.3x

FWD P/E

17.9x

DAY RANGE

$252 – $262

52W RANGE

$191
$317

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

AJG remains in a clean Stage 2 advancing regime with a bullish medium-term orientation. The stock has pulled back into the rising 9/21EMA zone on cooling volume and a moderating RSI after extreme overbought conditions. Given the Growth at Reasonable Price mandate, participation now on this pullback into dynamic support aligns risk/reward favorably. A break below the rising 21EMA and recent knee-in-the-road support would invalidate this entry thesis.

  • ↑Q1 revenue up 28% YoY, combining 5% organic and 23% M&A growth.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA grew 18% YoY, marking consecutive double-digit expansion.
  • ↓Low earnings yield raises profitability concerns for returns.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG) is a dominant player in the global insurance brokerage and risk management industry. The company operates through its three segments: brokerage, risk management, and corporate, providing a comprehensive range of services that encompass property and casualty insurance, employee benefits consulting, and innovative risk management solutions. Gallagher employs a dual strategy focusing on organic growth alongside strategic acquisitions, allowing it to capitalize on evolving market dynamics. Given its substantial market presence and commitment to innovative solutions, AJG is well-placed to harness growth opportunities in an increasingly complex risk landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue up 28% YoY, combining 5% organic and 23% M&A growth.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA grew 18% YoY, marking consecutive double-digit expansion.
  • ↑Completed nine tuck-in deals adding ~$60M annual revenues; >40 term sheets in pipeline.
  • ↑Repurchased ~1.4M shares for $310M, underscoring capital return focus.
  • ↑Positive profitability and revision factors support durable earnings potential.
  • ↑Diverse brokerage and risk-management services drive sustained market demand.

Bear says

  • ↓Low earnings yield raises profitability concerns for returns.
  • ↓Weak momentum factors indicate underperformance versus peers.
  • ↓Regulatory scrutiny on M&A (e.g., Assured Partners) could delay integrations.
  • ↓High competition and pricing pressure threaten margin expansion.
  • ↓Frequent acquisitions bring integration complexity, risking synergies.
  • ↓Elevated short interest and low quality factors signal heightened risk.

Investment themes with AJG

P&C Insurance↑ +0.32%

TRV · CB · AON

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-01-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We had a terrific first quarter. For combined brokerage and risk management segments, our two-pronged revenue growth strategy Growing both organically and through acquisitions delivered revenue growth of 28% in the first quarter. Organic growth was 5%. And M&A contributed 23%, driven by strong results from assured partners.
  • We saw strong growth across retail PC, wholesale, reinsurance, and benefits. Our risk management segment, or Gallagher Bassett, posted revenues up 14%, of which organic was 10%. We saw excellent new business and strong client retention. And we continue to generate excellent profits.
  • This quarter marks 24 consecutive quarters of double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. And we had another quarter of solid underlying margin expansion,

Bear points

  • Property is going to take its biggest toll in the second quarter,
  • the multiples that you list for token acquisitions, the lower end of that range came down a bit. So I was curious maybe if you could add a bit more color of what you're seeing in the market on multiples and kind of why you think that is.
  • we might have close to $10 billion to fund M&A before using any stock, indicating caution in long-term cash flow expectations.
Read full transcript analysis ›