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/AMSF
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Amerisafe Inc

Amerisafe Inc

AMSF
$33.90USD↑+1.04%+0.35 today

MARKET CAP

634.1M

P/E (TTM)

16.2x

FWD P/E

15.8x

DAY RANGE

$34 – $35

52W RANGE

$29
$48

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

AMSF has broken above its near-term EMAs and the 50-day SMA, showing short-term momentum but remains in a broader Stage 3 downtrend. This extended rally has created a sellable zone near resistance, aligning with a medium-term bearish tradable side and an intact long-term downtrend. Execution now favors selling into strength rather than adding, with attention on potential exhaustion and reversal around current levels.

  • ↑Q1 2026 net premiums earned $75.1 M, +9% YoY
  • ↑Client retention strong at 93.2%, ensuring recurring revenue
  • ↓Net income down to $8.1 M ($0.43/sh) from $8.9 M ($0.47/sh) prior year
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

AmeriSafe, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is an established provider in the workers' compensation insurance industry, specializing in coverage for small to mid-sized businesses within high-hazard sectors such as construction and trucking. The company has built a competitive advantage through disciplined underwriting practices, robust claims management, and strong agent relationships. AmeriSafe focuses on sustainable growth while navigating a complex and often challenging market characterized by prolonged soft pricing and medical cost inflation.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 net premiums earned $75.1 M, +9% YoY
  • ↑Client retention strong at 93.2%, ensuring recurring revenue
  • ↑Combined ratio of 93.2% indicates disciplined underwriting
  • ↑Repurchased 120 k shares at $33.60 and 1.10% dividend yield
  • ↑High earnings yield and 1.10% dividend yield support income returns
  • ↑Focus on high-hazard sectors drives niche competitive advantage

Bear says

  • ↓Net income down to $8.1 M ($0.43/sh) from $8.9 M ($0.47/sh) prior year
  • ↓Medical inflation adds pressure on claims severity and margins
  • ↓Twelve years of rate declines erode pricing power in soft market
  • ↓Elevated leverage risk may complicate operations if conditions worsen
  • ↓Weak profitability factors point to margin compression risks
  • ↓High short interest reflects skeptical investor sentiment

Investment themes with AMSF

L&H Insurance↑ +0.32%

PGR · TRV · ALL

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-24-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We are pleased with our solid start to 2026, marked by continued growth, disciplined execution, and attractive underwriting performance.
  • Our eighth consecutive quarter of premium growth, continued improvement in our expense ratio, and favorable prior year loss development underscore the strength of our operating model and the dedication of our team.
  • We believe these fundamentals position us well to navigate current market conditions while continuing to create long-term value for our shareholders.

Bear points

  • The workers' compensation market remains competitive and continues to operate in a prolonged, soft pricing environment amid persistent industry headwinds, such as claims severity and economic uncertainty.
  • continued rate pressure and general high claim severity are creating modest upward pressure on the current accident year.
  • we ended the first quarter of the current accident year with no claims with incurred value over $1 million compared to two in the first quarter of accident year 2025.
Read full transcript analysis ›