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/AROW
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Arrow Financial Corp

Arrow Financial Corp

AROW
$41.56USD↓-2.21%-0.94 today

MARKET CAP

686.9M

P/E (TTM)

13.8x

FWD P/E

10.0x

DAY RANGE

$41 – $43

52W RANGE

$26
$43

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

AROW is in a Stage 2 advancing regime with a bullish medium-term bias reinforced by an active Momentum Breakout pattern and intact higher highs and higher lows. However, price is extended significantly above the rising 9- and 20-EMAs and sits in extreme overbought territory on RSI and options score, so we defer execution. We will stalk a pullback into the rising EMA support zone and seek price acceptance before participating in the next uptrend leg. Key risks include deeper retracements from overbought conditions, failure to hold EMA support, and potential momentum fade ahead of Stage transition.

  • ↑Adirondack Bancorp deal adds 57 branches, boosting assets to $5.4B and deposits to $4.8B.
  • ↑Offers a 12.29% dividend yield, attractive in low-rate environment.
  • ↓Revenue has been flat for three years while EPS projects a 19% decline next year.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:AROW) is a regional bank with a strong presence in northeastern New York, primarily catering to retail and commercial banking clients. Following its strategic acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Arrow significantly expands its footprint and enhances its asset base, establishing itself as a dominant player in the local market. The company operates under the themes of local community banking and focusing on prudent financial management to drive growth in a stable economic environment.

Bull says

  • ↑Adirondack Bancorp deal adds 57 branches, boosting assets to $5.4B and deposits to $4.8B.
  • ↑Offers a 12.29% dividend yield, attractive in low-rate environment.
  • ↑Currently trading ~20% below fair value of $34.21; book-to-price of 1.07 indicates undervaluation.
  • ↑Momentum factors favorable, with two-thirds of model indicators positive, supporting upside potential.
  • ↑Earnings yield at 1.62% suggests return potential above bond yields; moderate profitability sustains earnings.
  • ↑Prudent leverage profile and disciplined financial management reduce risk amid expansion.

Bear says

  • ↓Revenue has been flat for three years while EPS projects a 19% decline next year.
  • ↓Declining EPS and slightly negative revisions hint at weakening analyst outlook.
  • ↓Smaller size hinders competition against larger banks; market share growth may stall.
  • ↓Low share liquidity increases volatility risk and may deter larger investors.
  • ↓Elevated short interest reflects skepticism, amplifying downside if sentiment worsens.
  • ↓Negative size and liquidity factors, plus bearish revisions, signal structural and sentiment headwinds.