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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc

ARR
$16.61USD↓-2.98%-0.51 today

MARKET CAP

2.1B

P/E (TTM)

5.8x

FWD P/E

5.5x

DAY RANGE

$17 – $17

52W RANGE

$14
$19

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

ARR is in a Stage 2 advancing environment marked by an emerging higher-high/higher-low structure and a recent momentum breakout. Despite a longer-term downtrend, medium-term conditions support a bullish bias. Price is currently extended above rising EMAs, suggesting patience is warranted. Optimal engagement favors waiting for a pullback into the 9EMA–21EMA support zone to align with the medium-term uptrend.

  • ↑4.09% dividend yield with $0.72 payout covered by $0.76 distributable earnings.
  • ↑Q1 produced $0.76 distributable earnings despite $54.85M net loss.
  • ↓High leverage exposes ARR to financing stress as 30-year yields exceed 5%.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) operates in the mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) sector, focusing on the acquisition of residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by U.S. government agencies. As a relatively established player in the space, ARR offers a competitive dividend yield, driven by its distributive earnings model. However, the company is currently facing risks associated with rising interest rates that impact financing conditions for MBS, potentially threatening dividend sustainability and overall financial health.

Bull says

  • ↑4.09% dividend yield with $0.72 payout covered by $0.76 distributable earnings.
  • ↑Q1 produced $0.76 distributable earnings despite $54.85M net loss.
  • ↑Positive price momentum and strong growth factors may attract buyers.
  • ↑Robust liquidity access supports strategic repo financing and hedging.
  • ↑Analyst upgrades signal improving profitability and potential price appreciation.
  • ↑High leverage amplifies returns in stable low-rate environments.

Bear says

  • ↓High leverage exposes ARR to financing stress as 30-year yields exceed 5%.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield highlights valuation inefficiency versus actual earnings.
  • ↓Elevated short interest reflects investor skepticism about ARR’s outlook.
  • ↓Book value fell 6.5% to $17.42, raising asset value concerns.
  • ↓Prior 40% dividend cut undermines confidence in payout sustainability.
  • ↓Smaller size limits economies of scale compared to larger mREIT peers.

Investment themes with ARR

Mortgage REITs↑ +0.54%

NLY · AGNC · STWD

Earnings Call · Q2 2023 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-11-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • The business continues to execute on its goal of adding scale and diversity to its portfolio, having now added more than 15 gigawatts of wind, solar, and storage-based development projects to its portfolio.
  • Revenue for the first half of 23 was $4 million versus $2.4 million in 2022, showing growth that we expect to continue in the second half of the year due to seasonality as two-thirds of Great Bay's revenue was earned in the second half of the previous year.
  • We believe this represents an incredibly exciting and impressive backlog of new royalties, with over 15 gigawatts of wind, solar, and storage development projects in our developer portfolio providing a built-in growing stream of royalties and revenue for GBR for the foreseeable future.

Bear points

  • Revenues were subject to continued soft merchant prices during Q2, and development timelines for everyone have been pushed to the right due to worsening interconnection backlogs.
  • the cost of both equity and debt financing has increased materially over the last year.
Read full transcript analysis ›