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/ASTH
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Astrana Health Inc

Astrana Health Inc

ASTH
$44.94USD↓-0.35%-0.16 today

MARKET CAP

2.2B

P/E (TTM)

73.7x

FWD P/E

29.2x

DAY RANGE

$43 – $45

52W RANGE

$18
$52

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

ASTH is in a Stage 3 distribution phase with active support failures and a clear lower-high/lower-low sequence. Price has broken below the 9EMA/20EMA resistance zone on expanding down-volume, confirming medium-term bearish bias. Short-term momentum is rolling over with price rejecting at short EMAs, offering a tactically favorable environment to sell into weakness. The Value + EPS strategy aligns with selective execution on structural breakdowns and resistance rejections.

  • ↑Q1 revenue jumped 56% YoY to $965.1 M, driven by value-based care
  • ↑40% of members in full-risk contracts now, providing 80% of Care Partners revenue
  • ↓Negative profitability factors indicate potential margin pressure as contracts mature
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Astrana Health (NASDAQ: ASTH) is a healthcare management company specializing in integrated care delivery and value-based models within the U.S. healthcare system. The company operates through three core segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. Astrana Health leverages an AI-enabled platform to optimize patient outcomes, emphasizing efficiency and improved patient care in a competitive landscape. Its recent performance highlights a commitment to enhancing operational efficiency and securing robust financial growth, positioning it favorably within the healthcare sector.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue jumped 56% YoY to $965.1 M, driven by value-based care
  • ↑40% of members in full-risk contracts now, providing 80% of Care Partners revenue
  • ↑Launched $100 M share buyback, reinforcing disciplined capital allocation
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong earnings revisions indicate analyst confidence
  • ↑AI platform integration reduces costs and boosts care delivery efficiency
  • ↑Medicaid disenrollment below expectations supports membership stability

Bear says

  • ↓Negative profitability factors indicate potential margin pressure as contracts mature
  • ↓Volatility risk is elevated, suggesting significant share price swings
  • ↓Institutional ownership is low, hinting at limited demand from large investors
  • ↓Medicaid attrition near 10% poses revenue headwinds amid regulatory uncertainty
  • ↓Prospect Health integration may fall short of $12–15 M synergy targets
  • ↓Healthcare sentiment and potential Medicaid cuts could cap stock gains

Investment themes with ASTH

Health Care Providers↓ -0.61%

UNH · CVS · HCA

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-08-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In Q1, this took a step up because of the four-risk contracts that we had started in the first quarter as we had guided to late last year. And all of those have now been completed. And so that's what's led to the spike here in Q1.
  • In terms of our 2026 guide, probably the best way to think about this is in the first half of the year, we're probably going to see a little over 50% of profitability coming in. This is consistent with what's happened in historical years.
  • Estrana delivered a strong start to 2026, with revenue of $965.1 million, up 56% year-over-year, and EBITDA of $66.3 million, up 82% year-over-year.

Bear points

  • quantified that yet, but we do expect over time that our partners and our providers and ultimately our members will see the value of our denser
  • we didn't see any abnormal utilization necessarily in Q1. I know there's been talk about whether in the flu season and whether that was heavier or lighter. You know, I don't think, you know, things came in pretty operationally clean is how I characterize the quarter and tracked pretty consistently both in the inpatient and outpatient side with the broader medical cost trends that we reported across the business quarter.
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