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Asure Software Inc

Asure Software Inc

ASUR
$8.14USD↓-3.90%-0.33 today

MARKET CAP

233.5M

P/E (TTM)

9.6x

FWD P/E

8.2x

DAY RANGE

$8 – $8

52W RANGE

$7
$11

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

ASUR remains in a clear Stage 4 decline with confirmed support failure and a persistent lower-highs/lower-lows structure. Price trades below all key EMAs, which are sloping down, and short-term momentum remains negative with no sign of exhaustion despite extreme oversold readings. Both medium- and long-term biases are bearish, permitting only sell-side engagement. Execution favors selling now into continued weakness, while a rebound above the 9/21 EMA regime would invalidate the bearish posture.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $42.8M (+23% YoY); guiding $159–163M for 2026
  • ↑Recurring revenue $37.8M (88% of total) underpins cash flow stability
  • ↓Gross margin dropped to 64% as lower-margin services weigh on profits
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Assure Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASUR) is a leading provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions specializing in payroll processing, compliance, and workforce management services for small and mid-sized businesses. The company has positioned itself strategically within the growing HR tech market, leveraging technological advancements, particularly AI integrations through its Assure Central platform, to drive operational efficiency and promote growth amidst fluctuating economic conditions. Assure also focuses on delivering compliance-driven solutions, enhancing its value proposition in an increasingly regulatory landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $42.8M (+23% YoY); guiding $159–163M for 2026
  • ↑Recurring revenue $37.8M (88% of total) underpins cash flow stability
  • ↑Luna AI agent launched; projected adjusted EBITDA margins of 23–25% in 2026
  • ↑AssureWorks outsourcing model could generate 2–3× revenue vs payroll-only clients
  • ↑HCM market growth driven by regulatory complexity favors Assure’s compliance offerings
  • ↑High earnings yield and positive revision momentum signal valuation upside

Bear says

  • ↓Gross margin dropped to 64% as lower-margin services weigh on profits
  • ↓Rising operational costs and service-mix shift may compress future margins
  • ↓Competitive pressure from ADP, Paychex, and Paycor risks client retention
  • ↓Economic uncertainty could delay SMB hiring, reducing demand for HCM services
  • ↓Latham Time integration not yet realized, posing revenue and efficiency risks
  • ↓Negative profitability factors and small size vs larger peers challenge growth

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-10-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • First quarter revenues came in at $42.8 million, representing growth of 23% compared to Q1 of 2025. This performance reflects continued momentum across our core business lines and validates the investments we've made in our platform, Salesforce, and AI capabilities over the past year.
  • Our organic growth rate for quarter one 2026 was 7%, compared with 3% in quarter one 2025, and 3.5% in quarter one 2024. This is a significant acceleration in a quarter, which historically has shown some seasonality.
  • we remain very bullish on the customer response to our platform improvements, and we believe we can deliver double-digit organic growth as we move through the remainder of 2026.

Bear points

  • Bullet revenue was relatively flat in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025.
  • We have modeled two additional rate cuts in 2026, which we anticipate will be partially offset by continued growth in client fund balances.
  • short term, sometimes you have to grow over bigger compares on the one time.
Read full transcript analysis ›