The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is a leading global financial institution headquartered in Spain, with a strong presence in Europe, Latin America, and Turkey. The bank specializes in a broad range of banking services, including retail banking, corporate banking, investments, and wealth management. BBVA is focused on digital transformation and sustainable finance, leveraging innovative technologies to enhance customer experience and drive profitability. Its strategic priorities include expanding its customer base, improving operational efficiency, and maintaining a strong capital position.
Bull says
- ↑Net profit €10.5 b in 2025 (+4.5% YoY) with 20.4% ROTE
- ↑Loan portfolio surged 16% YoY; Mexico +11.7%, Spain +7.8%
- ↑Completed €2.5 b of €4 b buyback; CET1 ratio at 13.34%
- ↑Efficiency ratio improved to 38% alongside 8.7 m new digital clients
- ↑High earnings yield and growth metrics support attractive valuation
- ↑AI scaling initiatives expected to drive future operating leverage
Bear says
- ↓Cost of risk in Turkey reached 189 bp, pressuring asset quality
- ↓Moderate leverage increases vulnerability in economic downturns
- ↓Geopolitical and USMCA regulatory uncertainties risk loan growth
- ↓Short interest elevated, reflecting market skepticism on momentum
- ↓Negative analyst revisions suggest earnings guidance may be cut
- ↓Margin pressure could intensify if interest rates decline
Investment themes with BBVA
Value-oriented stocks outside domestic markets
Banks operating primarily in Europe
Banks operating across multiple countries
Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- On slide 15, Spain has delivered an excellent first quarter, with net profit once again exceeding the $1 billion mark.
- This strong performance was supported by solid revenue dynamics, with gross income growing by 5.4% year over year and 4.3% quarter over quarter.
- Overall, Spain has delivered a very strong start to the year, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver on our full-year guidance.
Bear points
- Overall, Turkey delivered a strong quarter. However, given the uncertain environment, we now see a downward bias to our guidance.
- the average customer spreads last year versus this year would be a slight decline in any case. So it's going to be lower than the activity growth.
- In that sense, NAI is not growing as much as fees because of the digital bank impact.