TopBuild Corp

Stage 1 shows a narrow, flat consolidation base with coincident EMAs and contracting volatility. Long-term trend is sideways, indicating neutral structural momentum. Medium-term directional bias is bullish into this Stage 1 base, but extreme overbought context and lack of short-term momentum favor deferring execution. Execution should target pullbacks into range support or the 9/21 EMA band for a disciplined entry.

• ↑Q4 2025 sales rose 13.2% YoY to $1.49B, lifting full-year revenue to $5.4B.
• ↑Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.04B (19.2% margin) in 2025, reflecting strong cost control.
• ↓Residential segment sales forecast to decline mid-single digits in 2026.