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/CENX
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Century Aluminum Co

Century Aluminum Co

CENX
$41.50USD↓-2.58%-1.10 today

MARKET CAP

4.1B

P/E (TTM)

11.1x

FWD P/E

2.3x

DAY RANGE

$41 – $43

52W RANGE

$19
$70

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

CENX remains in a Stage 4 decline with a medium-term bearish bias under declining EMAs; short-term timing is neutral as price consolidates near support below the 9 and 20 EMAs, so we will trim into resistance at the falling EMA cluster to participate in the ongoing downtrend.

  • ↑Q1 revenue $634M (+1% QoQ) and net income $30M on higher LME prices.
  • ↑Mount Holly expansion adds 50k tpa capacity, generating ~$25M quarterly EBITDA.
  • ↓Grundartangi transformer failures could idle production 11–12 months.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) is a leading producer of primary aluminum in the United States, operating smelting facilities primarily in the U.S. and overseeing various production segments including smelting, casting, and trading. The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the resurgence in domestic demand, especially following the implementation of tariffs aimed at enhancing the local aluminum supply chain. With initiatives like the Oklahoma smelter project, Century aims to double U.S. production while navigating the complexities of the global aluminum market shaped by geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue $634M (+1% QoQ) and net income $30M on higher LME prices.
  • ↑Mount Holly expansion adds 50k tpa capacity, generating ~$25M quarterly EBITDA.
  • ↑$332M cash and net debt $220M bolster liquidity and fund projects.
  • ↑Section 232 tariffs boost domestic demand amid projected global supply deficit.
  • ↑Analysts raised EPS forecasts 14%; strong earnings yield and momentum factors.
  • ↑Q2 adjusted EBITDA guided at $215–235M reflecting sustained price tailwinds.

Bear says

  • ↓Grundartangi transformer failures could idle production 11–12 months.
  • ↓Higher energy costs cut adjusted EBITDA by $18M, squeezing margins.
  • ↓Q1 aluminum shipments fell to 123k tons, signaling instability.
  • ↓Heightened price volatility increases earnings uncertainty and deters investors.
  • ↓Growing short interest and no dividend undermine investor support.
  • ↓Geopolitical supply disruptions threaten output and pricing stability.

Investment themes with CENX

Infrastructure Development↑ +0.48%

DE · HWM · TT

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-10-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Net sales reached 649 million, an increase of 15 million, primarily driven by higher LME prices and regional premiums, despite lower shipment volumes.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was 231 million for the quarter, driven by higher LME and regional premiums, improved operating expenses, and favorable sales mix.
  • We continued to prioritize debt reduction, and to this end, $8 million of industrial revenue bonds were paid down using the Hawesville proceeds. As a result, net debt declined to $220 million, below our target of less than $300 million.

Bear points

  • We experienced higher than normal winter power prices for Seabree following winter storm fern, and we have begun to see input cost pressure across the other raw materials, including heavy fuel oil and caustic for the alumina refinery, as well as coke and pitch for the smelters.
  • The global Illumina market has been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, where smelter closures have temporarily decreased global demand for Illumina and weighed on global Illumina prices.
  • lower quality bauxite than expected from certain of its mining areas. It is in the process of adjusting its mining plan accordingly.
Read full transcript analysis ›