Century Aluminum Co

CENX is entrenched in a Stage 4 decline with confirmed lower highs and lower lows under declining EMAs, supporting a medium-term bearish bias. Short-term timing is neutral as price is extended below EMAs and extremely oversold. We will trim on rallies into the falling EMA cluster and prior support-turned-resistance zones to participate in ongoing weakness.

• ↑Q1 revenue $634M (+1% QoQ) and net income $30M on higher LME prices.
• ↑Mount Holly expansion adds 50k tpa capacity, generating ~$25M quarterly EBITDA.
• ↓Grundartangi transformer failures could idle production 11–12 months.