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CTO Realty Growth Inc

CTO Realty Growth Inc

CTO
$22.22USD↓-0.63%-0.14 today

MARKET CAP

750.7M

P/E (TTM)

27.1x

FWD P/E

77.2x

DAY RANGE

$22 – $23

52W RANGE

$15
$23

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

CTO remains in a healthy Stage 2 advance confirmed by rising EMAs and bullish continuation patterns, but price is extended into extreme overbought territory following a momentum breakout. While the medium-term bias stays bullish, short-term conditions suggest waiting for a pullback into the rising EMAs or prior breakout zone before initiating new positions.

  • ↑Q1 core FFO $16.9 M (+17% YoY) and adj FFO $18.2 M (+17%)
  • ↑6.8% same-store NOI growth; new leases of 153k sq ft with 14% rent uplift
  • ↓Total debt $651.8 M; net debt/EBITDA 6.4x raises interest-rate exposure
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on acquiring, owning, and managing high-quality retail properties, primarily in growth corridors within the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. The company’s strategic portfolio includes open-air lifestyle centers and mixed-use properties, positioning itself amid the ongoing recovery in retail demand and the shift toward experiential shopping. CTO is actively engaged in value creation through disciplined capital management and property enhancements.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 core FFO $16.9 M (+17% YoY) and adj FFO $18.2 M (+17%)
  • ↑6.8% same-store NOI growth; new leases of 153k sq ft with 14% rent uplift
  • ↑Palms Crossing acquisition ($81.6 M, 98% leased) adds value-add upside
  • ↑Net debt/EBITDA 6.4x at 4.6% cost supports disciplined capital use
  • ↑Portfolio occupancy 95.4%; signed-not-open pipeline of $6.2 M annual rent
  • ↑Dividend yield 1.03% backed by positive leasing momentum

Bear says

  • ↓Total debt $651.8 M; net debt/EBITDA 6.4x raises interest-rate exposure
  • ↓High rate sensitivity threatens borrowing costs and margins
  • ↓Signed-not-open lease backlog delays revenue recognition
  • ↓Negative earnings yield indicates weak return prospects
  • ↓Tenant demand risk could pressure occupancy in downturn
  • ↓Rising operational costs and high leverage strain cash flow

Investment themes with CTO

Retail REITs↑ +0.51%

KIM · REG · FRT

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-01-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We are pleased to report a strong quarter to start the year, highlighted by a robust leasing and strong same-store NOI growth, as well as the $81.6 million acquisition of a high-quality shopping center in Texas.
  • during the quarter, we executed leases, renewals, and extensions totaling 153,000 square feet, including 146,000 square feet of comparable leases and an average cash rent increase of 14%.
  • Combined, this activity has increased Millennia Crossing to 97% lease and improves the quality of the tenant roster and value of the assets.

Bear points

  • the cap will definitely be below 20% and maybe more in line with the 15%.
  • This growth was impacted by one tenant, as previously announced, vacating 98,000 square feet at our Albuquerque property at the beginning of December 2025, which more than offset the non-recurring recovery benefits recorded.
Read full transcript analysis ›