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Casella Waste Systems Inc

Casella Waste Systems Inc

CWST
$95.70USD↓-4.21%-4.21 today

MARKET CAP

6.1B

P/E (TTM)

74.8x

FWD P/E

69.8x

DAY RANGE

$95 – $101

52W RANGE

$74
$111

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

CWST remains in a Stage 2 advancing regime with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, and demand continues to dominate supply. After a recent pullback into the rising 9 and 20 EMAs, price held support and is now presenting a favorable entry opportunity. With medium-term structure intact and no signs of rejection, execution is recommended now at the EMA support zone.

  • ↑Q1 revenue $457.3 M (+9.6% YoY) driven by 5.1% price hikes.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA $97.1 M (+12.3%) from volume growth and efficiencies.
  • ↓P/E near 680x; risk of sharp correction if earnings lag.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CWST) is a leading player in the waste management sector, specializing in solid waste collection, disposal, recycling, and resource solutions across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S. The company employs a diverse operational model that integrates disciplined operational execution, strategic acquisitions, and customer engagement technology to capitalize on growing market demand. Casella is poised to benefit from increasing environmental sustainability considerations, making it a key participant in the transition towards resource recovery and waste reduction.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue $457.3 M (+9.6% YoY) driven by 5.1% price hikes.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA $97.1 M (+12.3%) from volume growth and efficiencies.
  • ↑Star Waste Systems adds ~$100 M annual revenue; tuck-in pipeline intact.
  • ↑Northeast landfill closures boost pricing power amid tight capacity.
  • ↑$500 M available liquidity supports growth; net leverage ~2.3x.
  • ↑High growth potential and strong balance sheet underpin expansion.

Bear says

  • ↓P/E near 680x; risk of sharp correction if earnings lag.
  • ↓Total debt $1.16 B, net leverage 2.29x; interest-rate sensitivity elevated.
  • ↓Acquisition integration costs have diluted margins; mid-Atlantic synergies slow.
  • ↓Adjusted FCF +5% in Q1 but high share volatility persists.
  • ↓High volatility and low institutional ownership signal investor uncertainty.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability factors point to return risks.

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-28-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Revenues in the first quarter were $417.1 million, up $76.1 million year-over-year, or 22.3%, with $57.3 million from acquisitions, including the rollover, and $18.4 million of growth from organic growth, or 5.4% year-over-year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $86.4 million in the quarter, up $15.4 million, or 21.7% year over year, with positive contribution from acquisitions and organic growth.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities was $50.1 million in the first quarter, up $42.4 million year over year, driven by strong EBITDA growth and a more normalized seasonal working capital outflow as compared to last year.

Bear points

  • Adjusted EBITDA margins were 20.7% in the quarter, down 10 basis points year over year, but in line with our budget.
  • GAAP net loss was $4.8 million in the quarter, impacted by about $6.9 million of increase in amortization of acquired intangibles year over year.
  • Roll-off may be a little bit weaker given some softness across the volumes, and that's something we'll continue to monitor through the year.
Read full transcript analysis ›