Ellington Financial Inc

EFC has entered a Stage 3 distribution phase, forming lower highs and lower lows with EMAs flattening and tilting lower. The 50-DMA acts as overhead resistance and volume shows mild distribution bias. With a bearish medium-term structure and neutral short-term timing, a deferred sell into resistance zones (Trim) is the appropriate posture.

• ↑Q1 GAAP EPS $0.78 and ADE $0.55 vs $0.39 dividend.
• ↑Record $2.8 B securitizations in Q1 improved liquidity and margins.
• ↓Home-price declines may worsen credit quality and increase default rates.