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First Commonwealth Financial Corp

First Commonwealth Financial Corp

FCF
$21.12USD↓-1.03%-0.22 today

MARKET CAP

2.1B

P/E (TTM)

14.0x

FWD P/E

11.2x

DAY RANGE

$21 – $21

52W RANGE

$15
$21

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

FCF has formed a terminal blow-off top within Stage 3 distribution, with a subsequent rejection bar and extreme overbought signals. Medium-term bias is bearish, despite the structural long-term uptrend. Short-term exhaustion at fresh highs offers a clean entry to sell, so we will sell now rather than chasing a potential breakdown into Stage 4.

  • ↑Institutional ownership now exceeds 75%, backed by BlackRock and State Street.
  • ↑Q1 2026 net income $37.5 M, EPS $0.37; revenue +12.9% YoY.
  • ↓Non-performing loans at 0.98% highlight heightened credit losses.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE: FCF) is a regional banking institution providing a wide range of financial services, including commercial banking, residential mortgage, and wealth management, primarily serving Pennsylvania and Ohio. The company focuses on organic growth and strong customer relationships while navigating a competitive landscape. The ongoing economic shifts and interest rate changes make this an intriguing case study as the bank develops strategies to optimize profitability and manage risks.

Bull says

  • ↑Institutional ownership now exceeds 75%, backed by BlackRock and State Street.
  • ↑Q1 2026 net income $37.5 M, EPS $0.37; revenue +12.9% YoY.
  • ↑Quarterly dividend of $0.14/share yields 2.87%, sustainable payout.
  • ↑CenterBank acquisition and healthy loan applications aim for NIM recovery to 4%.
  • ↑Analyst fair value of $20.83 by 2029 implies potential undervaluation.
  • ↑High earnings yield, favorable book-to-price, positive revisions and low volatility.

Bear says

  • ↓Non-performing loans at 0.98% highlight heightened credit losses.
  • ↓Efficiency ratio of 55.4% vs peers strains profitability.
  • ↓Q1 loan repayments $630 M may curb mid-single-digit loan growth.
  • ↓NIM down to 3.92%, vulnerable to interest rate shifts.
  • ↓P/E of 12.8 above peers risks valuation pullback.
  • ↓Negative growth and profitability factors with elevated short interest.

Investment themes with FCF

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Regional Banks↑ +0.50%

FLG · TCBI · ZION

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-01-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In the first quarter, we had 18 successful CRE projects. They were refinanced or sold, representing a payoff of approximately $240 million in loan outstandings.
  • Deposits grew 6.3% end-to-end annualized in the first quarter, and our money market promotions have resulted in new consumer checking accounts.
  • Our first strategic initiative, live our mission to improve the financial lives of our neighbors and businesses, remains the cornerstone of our brand and is what sets us apart as a community bank.

Bear points

  • Net income of $37.5 million resulted in 37 cents of earnings per share as compared to our consensus earning estimate of 40 cents.
  • Net interest income was down some $4.2 million for the quarter to $109.3 million as we sold $210 million of Eastern PA commercial loans, and loan balances fell another $74.2 million due to heightened payoffs.
  • The provision for loan losses increased $3.7 million to $10.7 million on a linked quarter basis as we had $9.6 million in specific reserves for three larger credits, one of which was from Eastern Pennsylvania.
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