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Forestar Group Inc

Forestar Group Inc

FOR
$29.90USD↓-3.30%-1.02 today

MARKET CAP

1.5B

P/E (TTM)

9.1x

FWD P/E

10.3x

DAY RANGE

$30 – $31

52W RANGE

$22
$32

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

FOR remains in a Stage 2 advancing regime with HH/HL intact, and while a Bullish Exhaustion pattern signals waning momentum, price is finding support in a pullback into rising EMAs. Medium-term bias stays bullish, and short-term timing favors buying the retracement into the 9/21 EMA zone. Execution is warranted now on this pullback, with risk defined by a deeper break below the 50 DMA.

  • ↑Record $2.3B backlog supports delivering 14K–14.5K lots in fiscal 2026.
  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue rose 7% YoY to $374.3M.
  • ↓Affordability constraints and cautious sentiment risk curbing lot sales.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE: FOR) is a prominent player in the lot development sector, specializing in providing finished lots to residential home builders across the United States. Positioned strategically in high-demand markets, the company capitalizes on demographic trends, such as ongoing U.S. population growth and household formation, to meet the increasing demand for housing amidst a national supply shortage. Forestar is focused on expanding its market presence while efficiently managing its financial resources and operational capabilities.

Bull says

  • ↑Record $2.3B backlog supports delivering 14K–14.5K lots in fiscal 2026.
  • ↑Q2 2026 revenue rose 7% YoY to $374.3M.
  • ↑$1B+ liquidity enables disciplined land acquisitions and modest leverage.
  • ↑U.S. population growth and household formation sustain lot demand.
  • ↑Focus on entry-level finished lots targets share gains as affordability recovers.
  • ↑High earnings yield and positive momentum factors support valuation.

Bear says

  • ↓Affordability constraints and cautious sentiment risk curbing lot sales.
  • ↓Gross margin declined to 21.4% from 22.6% YoY, pressuring profits.
  • ↓Negative growth metrics signal near-term sales expansion headwinds.
  • ↓Customer concentration risk with D.R. Horton exposes demand fluctuations.
  • ↓Sensitivity to rising rates could dampen demand and raise costs.
  • ↓Weak profitability factors and negative revisions indicate earnings uncertainty.

Investment themes with FOR

Housing Shortage↑ +0.40%

Undersupplied housing markets fueling construction investment

HD · LOW · CRH
Residential REITs↑ +0.57%

Stable income from diversified rental housing portfolios

AVB · EQR · ESS

Earnings Call · Q2 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In the second quarter, net income attributable to Four Star increased 2% to $32.1 million, or 63 cents per diluted share, compared to $31.6 million, or 62 cents per diluted share, in the prior year quarter.
  • Our pre-tax income increased 8% to $43.9 million compared to $40.7 million in the second quarter of last year. And our pre-tax profit margin this quarter was 11.7% compared to 11.6% in the prior year quarter.
  • Revenues for the second quarter increased 7% to $374.3 million compared to $351 million in the prior year quarter.

Bear points

  • Our gross profit margin for the quarter was 21.4%, compared to 22.6% for the same quarter last year. The current quarter margin includes $6.3 million of land option charges related to deposits and pre-acquisition cost write-offs, compared to $900,000 in the prior year quarter.
  • Excluding the effect of the net change in write-offs, our current quarter gross margin would have been approximately 22.9%.
  • While home affordability constraints and cautious home buyers are expected to remain near-term headwinds for home demand,
Read full transcript analysis ›