The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Fox Corporation (NASDAQ: FOXA) is a leading player in the media and entertainment industry, with a diversified portfolio encompassing news, sports, and entertainment programming across television, cable networks, and streaming services like Tubi. The company operates in a competitive landscape, leveraging its strong brand recognition, particularly in live sports and news, while adapting to the ongoing shifts toward digital consumption. FOXA is positioned strategically to benefit from significant upcoming sports events, including the FIFA Men's World Cup, which will likely draw substantial advertising revenue.
Bull says
- ↑Q3 FY26 revenue rose 27% YoY to $4B, led by 65% ad growth
- ↑Tubi revenue increased 35% YoY, turned profitable, reaching 100M+ monthly users
- ↑Buybacks hit $1.95B in FY26 and $8.5B since 2019 (36% shares)
- ↑Projected $11B political ad revenue in midterms, boosting ad sales
- ↑CPM rates up >45%, reflecting strong pricing power in ad market
- ↑High earnings yield, favorable profitability, momentum, and growth factors support valuation
Bear says
- ↓Headline ad revenue dropped 24% YoY in Q3 without Super Bowl impact
- ↓Growth factor score is negative, signaling challenges in expanding revenue
- ↓Content costs rose 16% YoY, pressuring margins amid sports rights spend
- ↓High short interest reflects bearish sentiment and potential share price pressure
- ↓Subscriber count declined 6.5%, highlighting cord-cutting risks and retention challenges
- ↓Negative growth, high short interest, and low liquidity elevate investment risk
Investment themes with FOXA
Consumer travel services and hospitality experiences
Companies paying above-average dividends
Earnings Call · Q3 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- This performance was demonstrated again in our fiscal third quarter, where our financial results continued to reflect the unabated momentum across the business.
- We reported $4 billion of revenue and EBITDA growth of 11% to just over $950 million, reflecting strong core top line delivery from ongoing advertising trends and distribution revenue growth.
- Distribution revenue grew 3% during the quarter, benefiting from the continued early success of Fox One, where both new subscriber additions which we are confident are additive to the ecosystem, and subscriber retention outperformed our expectations.
Bear points
- As anticipated, advertising revenue at our television segment declined 30%, As underlying growth led by Tubi, along with the benefit from this year's additional NFL wildcard game, was more than offset by the absence of Super Bowl 59, which generated over $800 million in gross advertising revenue in the prior year quarter.
- Ratings were down as we were comping against the presidential inauguration a year ago.