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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

FWRG
$12.45USD↑+2.22%+0.27 today

MARKET CAP

767.5M

P/E (TTM)

44.5x

FWD P/E

50.2x

DAY RANGE

$12 – $13

52W RANGE

$10
$20

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowMedium

FWRG is in an early Stage 2 advancing phase, reinforced by a high-volume Momentum Breakout above the prior $11.7 cluster. Price is holding just above the rising 9/21 EMA support zone after a shallow pullback, and short-term conditions favor immediate entry. Execution now targets continuation participation off the EMAs, with a close watch for any rejection or breakdown.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue reached $331M (+17.3% YoY) with same-store sales +2.8%.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 22.2% to $27.8M, delivering an 8.4% margin.
  • ↓Same-restaurant traffic fell 2% in Q1 2026 due to adverse weather.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: FWRG) is a leading player in the fast-casual dining sector, specializing in daytime dining offerings that cater largely to breakfast and brunch enthusiasts. The company operates nearly 648 locations across 32 states, emphasizing fresh ingredients and innovative menu options aimed at a higher-income demographic, particularly targeting millennials. First Watch stands out due to its unique dining experience and strong brand positioning within an increasingly competitive breakfast and brunch market.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue reached $331M (+17.3% YoY) with same-store sales +2.8%.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 22.2% to $27.8M, delivering an 8.4% margin.
  • ↑Digital marketing now covers 75% of locations, driving several hundred bps traffic lift.
  • ↑Targets higher-income millennials; resilient customer base in economic downturns.
  • ↑Plans to open 59–63 new system-wide restaurants in 2026.
  • ↑Attractive earnings yield and strong book-to-price signal potential undervaluation.

Bear says

  • ↓Same-restaurant traffic fell 2% in Q1 2026 due to adverse weather.
  • ↓Labor and commodity cost inflation continues to strain profitability.
  • ↓Elevated leverage limits flexibility in a rising interest rate environment.
  • ↓Removal from Russell 3000E Growth index weakens investor sentiment.
  • ↓Negative profitability and growth factor trends raise expansion doubts.
  • ↓Net loss of $2.7M in Q1 2026 despite revenue growth.

Investment themes with FWRG

Restaurants↑ +0.38%

Exposure to casual and fine dining venue operators

MCD · SBUX · YUM

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-09-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We're pleased with our first quarter performance as several of our key growth initiatives supported solid financial results.
  • We delivered same restaurant sales growth of 2.8%, generated the restaurant level operating profit margin of 18.5%, and expanded the system to 648 restaurants with the opening of 16 new locations.
  • As a result, we're reiterating our fiscal 2026 same restaurant sales growth and total revenue growth guidance. We're also raising the low end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Bear points

  • it's just a natural headwind to restaurant traffic
  • We do know from our research that we have tremendous pricing power, but we also know that the consumer is under pressure. So we really try to walk that fine line.
  • Same restaurant traffic growth was negative 2%, with weather negatively affecting the quarter by around 100 basis points in addition to our customary plan sales transfer.
Read full transcript analysis ›