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Greif Inc

Greif Inc

GEF
$76.32USD↑+0.29%+0.22 today

MARKET CAP

3.9B

P/E (TTM)

22.1x

FWD P/E

16.5x

DAY RANGE

$76 – $77

52W RANGE

$56
$77

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

GEF remains in a strong Stage 2 advance with a long-term uptrend and active Parabola continuation pattern. While medium-term directional bias stays bullish supported by higher highs, rising EMAs, and constructive volume, short-term conditions show price extended above EMAs with extreme overbought readings. Therefore, bullish execution is deferred for pullbacks into the short-term EMA support zone rather than chasing the current high.

  • ↑Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA $214M (+20.5% YoY) driven by cost management.
  • ↑Free cash flow $171M (+400% YoY) underscores strong cash generation.
  • ↓Lowered low-end EBITDA guidance to $610M on volume softness.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Greif, Inc. (NYSE: GEF) is a global leader in industrial packaging products and services, specializing in offering sustainable solutions to various sectors, including agricultural, food, and chemical industries. The company operates approximately 250 plants across more than 40 countries, which allows it to maintain a robust production capacity while focusing on operational efficiency and sustainability. As Greif continues to enhance its market presence, it positions itself at the forefront of the ongoing demand for eco-friendly packaging solutions.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA $214M (+20.5% YoY) driven by cost management.
  • ↑Free cash flow $171M (+400% YoY) underscores strong cash generation.
  • ↑Achieved $10M cost savings toward $15–25M FY 2025 target.
  • ↑Completed $150M share repurchase; $300M authorization remains.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA margin 15.4%; leverage ratio lowered to 1.1x.
  • ↑Positive earnings yield and efficient leverage support valuation.

Bear says

  • ↓Lowered low-end EBITDA guidance to $610M on volume softness.
  • ↓Middle East plant shutdowns highlight geopolitical disruption risk.
  • ↓Profitability metrics under pressure; recent earnings revisions turned negative.
  • ↓Low institutional ownership suggests muted buy-side interest.
  • ↓Insider sales of ~$406.6K raise governance and alignment concerns.
  • ↓Weak profitability factors and modest dividend dampen support.

Investment themes with GEF

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-29-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Current demand pretty much was expected. A little slower start to fiber in Q2. It got improved. Backlogs are really now about as high as they've been in two years.
  • The overall growth in our polymer has been one and a half percent year over year, and those end segments have proven to be more resilient than other end markets, exactly as we planned and expected.
  • that'll be an annual bottom line, even a cost impact of a positive $10 million a year to the bottom line. As we said on each of those facilities, the end customer mix, we shifted what made sense to being served out of our existing mill footprint. And, you know, so obviously that all factors in to drive a lower average cost per ton and, you know, higher margin that drives to that bottom line $10 million impact for that.

Bear points

  • building in some, I guess, additional volume downside. That might not have been your phrasing, but nonetheless in the worst-case scenario.
  • we build in some on polymers. But again, we build in sort of worst-case scenario in giving our low-end guidance.
  • I don't have the answer for you on what the cost per ton impact is, but unfortunately I haven't looked at what the average cost per ton impact is.
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