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Graham Corp

Graham Corp

GHM
$107.79USD↓-0.33%-0.36 today

MARKET CAP

1.3B

P/E (TTM)

77.0x

FWD P/E

58.1x

DAY RANGE

$103 – $111

52W RANGE

$46
$126

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

GHM remains in a pronounced Stage 4 decline, with short‐term and medium‐term trends bearish despite the long‐term uptrend. Price is below the 9/21 EMAs and 50 DMA, signaling follow‐through of the breakdown, while oversold conditions suggest deferment of additional selling. We will trim on relief rallies into the falling EMAs and 50 DMA, aligning with the bearish medium‐term bias and avoiding selling into extended weakness.

  • ↑Q2 FY2026 revenue $66M, +23% YoY driven by defense & energy
  • ↑Record backlog $515.6M (+34% YoY), 35–40% expected to convert next 12 months
  • ↓P/E 95.5x vs market average; negative earnings yield raises valuation concerns
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Graham Corporation (NYSE: GHM) is an established player in the engineering and manufacturing sector, specializing in vacuum and heat transfer technologies serving critical applications across defense, energy, and space markets. The company has been gaining notable recognition for its involvement in U.S. Navy programs and the burgeoning new space economy by supplying advanced engineered solutions. With a focus on innovation and capacity expansion, Graham Corporation is well-positioned to leverage growth opportunities in the defense sector, as well as capitalize on the increasing demand for energy solutions.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 FY2026 revenue $66M, +23% YoY driven by defense & energy
  • ↑Record backlog $515.6M (+34% YoY), 35–40% expected to convert next 12 months
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA $6M (+50%), margin 10.7%
  • ↑$35M FLAC Tech acquisition broadens product portfolio and capacity
  • ↑CapEx at 7–10% of revenue to expand facilities and boost efficiency
  • ↑Strong momentum and quality factors; low leverage risk

Bear says

  • ↓P/E 95.5x vs market average; negative earnings yield raises valuation concerns
  • ↓Gross margin down 100 bps on higher lower-margin material mix
  • ↓Projected $2–5M tariff headwind could dent profits
  • ↓87% of backlog tied to defense spending; high government dependency risk
  • ↓Elevated short interest and negative revision factors signal investor skepticism
  • ↓Negative liquidity and small-size factors raise long-term stability concerns

Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-15-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We had strong growth for our fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 with sales of 59.3 million. This was up 21% over the prior year and included growth across all markets.
  • Sales to the defense market grew by 7.7 million, or 28%, from the prior year period, driven by growth in existing programs, better execution, improved pricing, and the timing of key project milestones.
  • We achieved record sales of 209.9 million in fiscal 2025. which was up 24.4 million or 13% over fiscal 2024. This growth has primarily been organic and has been driven by strong defense sales, which was up 23%.

Bear points

  • We currently do not expect to receive an additional training grant in fiscal 2026.
  • the outlook we are providing also reflects the expected impact of tariffs on our fiscal 2026 results, which we estimate to be approximately 2 to 5 million.
Read full transcript analysis ›