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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc

HGV
$49.94USD↓-2.86%-1.47 today

MARKET CAP

3.9B

P/E (TTM)

24.1x

FWD P/E

9.1x

DAY RANGE

$49 – $51

52W RANGE

$37
$55

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

HGV is in a Stage 3 distribution with a broken higher-high sequence and down-sloping short-term EMAs capping rally attempts. The primary Bearish Pivot Point pattern signals structural downside repair, justifying a bearish medium-term bias. Near-term price repeatedly rejects at the 9/20 EMA zone, making a Sell Now at resistance appropriate.

  • ↑Q1 revenue reached $1.2B (+2% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $267M (23% margin)
  • ↑Contract sales grew 10% to $721M, reflecting resilient demand
  • ↓Negative profitability metrics indicate inefficiency converting revenue into profit
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) is a leading player in the vacation ownership industry, specializing in the development, marketing, and management of timeshare resorts. HGV capitalizes on the strong brand recognition of Hilton to enhance member experiences, focusing on driving demand amid economic fluctuations. The company is positioned favorably in an evolving leisure travel sector, catering to a diverse clientele with innovative programs like HEV MAX that aim to attract younger demographics and maintain customer loyalty.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 revenue reached $1.2B (+2% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $267M (23% margin)
  • ↑Contract sales grew 10% to $721M, reflecting resilient demand
  • ↑HEV MAX program spurred 35% jump in membership since launch
  • ↑$150M repurchased in Q1 with ongoing buybacks planned
  • ↑High earnings‐yield and strong growth momentum underpin upside
  • ↑Hilton brand provides pricing power and customer loyalty

Bear says

  • ↓Negative profitability metrics indicate inefficiency converting revenue into profit
  • ↓Rising operational costs and licensing fee headwinds threaten margins
  • ↓Geopolitical conflicts may dampen leisure travel demand
  • ↓$11.7M in insider selling and analyst downgrades weigh on sentiment
  • ↓Elevated leverage exposes the firm to rising interest rate risks
  • ↓Weak dividend yield and small size may limit shareholder returns

Investment themes with HGV

Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-30-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In addition, we drove great new buyer growth along with cost efficiencies that supported healthy EBITDA flow through.
  • I'm pleased to report that we're raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year.
  • Our teams effectively managed costs to drive improved EBITDA contribution, and we remain confident in our guidance to grow EBITDA for the full year.

Bear points

  • At the same time, we're carefully monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and the potential broader effects on the leisure travel landscape.
  • contract sales of $719 million were down slightly, performing in line with the expectations we laid out on our prior call.
  • BPG was nearly $3,800 for the quarter, declining 8%, and in line with the expectations of a high single-digit decline we discussed last quarter.
Read full transcript analysis ›