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Holley Inc

Holley Inc

HLLY
$2.62USD↓-5.76%-0.16 today

MARKET CAP

315.4M

P/E (TTM)

12.5x

FWD P/E

7.0x

DAY RANGE

$3 – $3

52W RANGE

$2
$4

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

Persistent lower-high/lower-low structure and price below key EMAs define a medium-term bearish posture, and the recent pullback into declining EMAs offers an optimal sell entry now. A Bearish Exhaustion candle at fresh lows signals some seller fatigue but no repair of the downtrend, reinforcing the sell-side preference. Overhead resistance at the 50-day SMA and falling EMAs frames the execution zone. Despite RSI reaching oversold, the broader downtrend and lack of sustained reversal favor a tactical sell now.

  • ↑Q1 2025 core revenue increased 3.9% YoY, signaling market recovery.
  • ↑Gross margin reached 41.7% and adjusted EBITDA margin 17.8%.
  • ↓Profitability factor remains negative; adjusted EBITDA margin normalized to 21.9%.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Holley Inc. (NYSE: HLLY) is a leading participant in the automotive aftermarket, specializing in performance parts for automotive enthusiasts. Established with a rich legacy, Holley designs, manufactures, and distributes high-performance automotive products, capitalizing on a growing interest in car customization and performance enhancement within the automotive sector. The company operates within the broader theme of automotive enthusiasts and accessory performance, positioning itself strategically to cater to a passionate consumer base dedicated to performance enhancement.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2025 core revenue increased 3.9% YoY, signaling market recovery.
  • ↑Gross margin reached 41.7% and adjusted EBITDA margin 17.8%.
  • ↑Q2 free cash flow hit record $35.7M, funding growth initiatives.
  • ↑Portfolio rebalancing to generate $15M+ cash; HRX acquisition enhances safety division.
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong momentum factors suggest attractive valuation.
  • ↑Positive liquidity factor and QS score reflect solid financial health.

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability factor remains negative; adjusted EBITDA margin normalized to 21.9%.
  • ↓Q2 free cash flow swung to -$10.8M, straining capital allocation.
  • ↓Elevated distributor inventory levels risk future write-offs and delayed sales.
  • ↓Volatile consumer sentiment may curb discretionary enthusiast spending.
  • ↓Negative dividend yield and small size reduce stability and appeal.
  • ↓High interest-rate sensitivity and macro headwinds could pressure margins.

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-12-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we're seeing pretty strong in April, and what that would imply for the balance of the year is, you know, six to seven on each of the subsequent quarters.
  • we think that momentum we've built over the last, you know, 12 to 18 months is continuing. And just we had this temporary effect of the weather that, as you just commented, you know, we're seeing in a lot of consumer businesses in the first quarter.
  • We believe that this combination positions us well for the balance of the year.

Bear points

  • We're cautiously optimistic, of course, with the extended conflict in the Middle East. You know, we've got to see how that plays out because right now, you know, our large partners aren't reporting outside of the weather impact any negative impact so far.
  • Net sales were $147.3 million, down 3.7% versus the prior year, reflecting the elevated partner inventory levels and weather impacts we just discussed.
  • Free cash flow was negative 6.3 million, an improvement of approximately 4.5 million year-over-year, still negative for the quarter but trending in the right direction,
Read full transcript analysis ›