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/HLMN
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Hillman Solutions Corp

Hillman Solutions Corp

HLMN
$8.09USD↓-4.15%-0.35 today

MARKET CAP

1.6B

P/E (TTM)

14.4x

FWD P/E

12.6x

DAY RANGE

$8 – $9

52W RANGE

$7
$11

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

HLMN is in an early Stage 1 consolidation following a downtrend, forming higher highs and lows. This medium-term bullish asymmetry is supported by a clear HHHL pattern and rising short-term EMAs, but price is currently extended above these EMAs and flagged as overbought. Near-term timing is unfavorable, so we should stalk pullbacks into structurally supportive zones at the rising 9EMA/20EMA or the lower half of the base near the 50-day SMA before adding exposure. Despite the medium-term bullish tilt, the long-term trend remains down, underscoring caution until a clear breakout occurs.

  • ↑Q1 net sales of $370.1 M (+3% YoY) with FY26 guide of $1.63–1.73 B.
  • ↑Acquisitions of Campbell Chain and Delaney to add over $30 M sales in 2026.
  • ↓P/E of 46.3× above US Machinery peers, limiting upside.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Hillman Solutions Corporation (NASDAQ: HLMN) is a leading provider of hardware-related products, focusing on areas such as fasteners, protective gear, and robotic/digital solutions. Founded in 1964 and based in Cincinnati, the company caters to retail, pro-distribution, and industrial maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) customers. Hillman has established robust relationships with major retailers, leveraging a sizable sales force and efficient distribution capabilities to enhance product offerings and customer satisfaction. The company is well-positioned within the trend towards DIY home improvement and growing e-commerce segments, but faces challenges from an evolving competitive landscape and shifting consumer purchasing behaviors.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 net sales of $370.1 M (+3% YoY) with FY26 guide of $1.63–1.73 B.
  • ↑Acquisitions of Campbell Chain and Delaney to add over $30 M sales in 2026.
  • ↑Pro‐distribution segment grew fastest, now ~30% of revenue.
  • ↑Deployed $10.1 M in buybacks to boost shareholder value.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield and robust book-to-price indicate value.
  • ↑Positive analyst revisions; manageable leverage and healthy liquidity.

Bear says

  • ↓P/E of 46.3× above US Machinery peers, limiting upside.
  • ↓Q1 adjusted EBITDA $50.1 M (–8%) and gross margin at 45.6% (–130 bps).
  • ↓Annual tariff costs of ~$150 M pressuring margins.
  • ↓Free cash flow negative $34.3 M signals weak generation.
  • ↓Net debt of $710 M (2.6× EBITDA) raises leverage risk.
  • ↓High sensitivity to rates and oil prices threatens stability.

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-29-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We delivered both top and bottom line results that were in line with our expectations, and we took great care of our customers.
  • Net sales in the first quarter of 2025 totaled 359.3 million, which increased 2.6% versus the first quarter of 2024, driven by the in-tax acquisition, which closed at the end of 2024. This added about four points of growth versus last year.
  • adjusted EBITDA increased 4.2% to 54.5 million compared to 52.3 million last year and our adjusted EBITDA margins improved by 30 basis points to 15.2%.

Bear points

  • we estimate the impact of all new 2025 tariffs will be approximately $250 million on an annualized basis.
  • This assumes market volumes are down approximately 17% during the second half.
  • First quarter adjusted gross margin decreased by 70 basis points to 46.9% versus the prior year quarter,
Read full transcript analysis ›