Lumida
/IPI
⌘K
Intrepid Potash Inc

Intrepid Potash Inc

IPI
$34.20USD↓-0.03%-0.01 today

MARKET CAP

459.4M

P/E (TTM)

20.5x

FWD P/E

33.0x

DAY RANGE

$34 – $35

52W RANGE

$23
$50

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

IPI remains firmly in a Stage 4 decline, with confirmed lower highs and lower lows driving a bearish medium-term bias. The recent rally into declining EMAs presents a tactical sell opportunity in line with the downtrend, while the long-term uptrend on the 200-DMA persists but is showing stress. Execution should target selling rallies into the 9/21 EMA zone. Oversold conditions and proximity to 200-DMA support are key risks to monitor.

  • ↑Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $19 M vs $14.6 M prior year, up 30% YoY
  • ↑Average realized potash price climbed to $353/ton, +13% YoY
  • ↓Production guidance trimmed by 30 k tons due to unsuccessful AMAX drilling
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI) is a leading producer of potash and Trio fertilizers, primarily focused on agricultural productivity. The company operates primarily within the North American agricultural market, leveraging its extensive asset base and operational efficiencies to meet the growing fertilizer demands amid a backdrop of increasing global food production needs. Intrepid is strategically positioned to capitalize on market trends, including stronger commodity prices, while also exploring diversification into lithium production, signaling a responsive adaptation to the evolving agricultural landscape.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $19 M vs $14.6 M prior year, up 30% YoY
  • ↑Average realized potash price climbed to $353/ton, +13% YoY
  • ↑Cash balance of ~$170 M post asset sale supports CapEx and lithium projects
  • ↑Q1 sales volume hit 211 k tons, second-highest since 2016
  • ↑Dividend yield ~0.78% and low leverage underpin financial stability
  • ↑Strong book-to-price and positive energy-price sensitivity enhance valuation

Bear says

  • ↓Production guidance trimmed by 30 k tons due to unsuccessful AMAX drilling
  • ↓Negative earnings yield signals structural profitability weakness
  • ↓Expected cost per ton uptick may compress Q2 margins
  • ↓Analyst consensus rates stock a ‘strong sell’ with ~22% downside
  • ↓High price volatility increases risk for conservative investors
  • ↓Weak growth and downward earnings revisions dampen recovery prospects

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-12-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Intrepid delivered a strong first quarter. Our continued focus on driving production to increase revenues and improve unit economics is visible in our first quarter results.
  • For 2026, we expect our annual potash production to be at the upper end of our guidance of 270 to 285,000 tons, given recent improvements at HB.
  • In terms of second quarter guidance, we expect another solid quarter as spring application winds down and our potash facilities enter the summer evaporation season.

Bear points

  • We do recognize the concerns regarding the financial health of growers within the U.S. market, particularly as affordability challenges have been intensified by volatility in input costs arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
  • We anticipate growers will continue to make the input decisions carefully.
Read full transcript analysis ›