Lumida
/KNF
⌘K
Knife River Corp

Knife River Corp

KNF
$81.71USD↓-2.24%-1.87 today

MARKET CAP

4.6B

P/E (TTM)

31.8x

FWD P/E

23.7x

DAY RANGE

$82 – $84

52W RANGE

$59
$96

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

KNF is in a Stage 4 decline despite its long-term uptrend, with lower highs and lower lows and the Bearish Pivot Point signaling failure of upside control. Short-term price is consistently rejected at the 9 and 20 EMAs, aligning with a bearish medium-term bias. Execution is optimal now into resistance near the short-term EMAs, anticipating continuation of the downtrend. While the 200 DMA still slopes mildly higher, caution is warranted for potential oversold bounces that could stall further declines.

  • ↑16% YoY revenue growth to $1.1 B in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA +16% with +290 bp margin expansion
  • ↑Record backlog of $1.2 B, ~75% slated for completion in 2026
  • ↓Adverse Oregon weather cut EBITDA guidance by $55 M, underscoring seasonality risk
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Knife River Corporation (NASDAQ: KNF) is a leading provider in the construction materials sector, with a focus on aggregates, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and contracting services. The company operates primarily in high-growth regions within the U.S., capitalizing on increasing demand due to significant public infrastructure spending. Its competitive edge stems from a vertically integrated business model, allowing it to enhance operational efficiencies and maintain strong customer relationships with a mix of public and private projects, particularly benefitting from recent federal and state funding initiatives.

Bull says

  • ↑16% YoY revenue growth to $1.1 B in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA +16% with +290 bp margin expansion
  • ↑Record backlog of $1.2 B, ~75% slated for completion in 2026
  • ↑Regional DOT budgets up 15% YoY bolster aggregates demand
  • ↑Three Q1 acquisitions in aggregates expand capacity and margins
  • ↑Vertically integrated model and strong balance sheet drive efficiency
  • ↑Forward P/E of 24x vs 21x industry average, supported by high earnings yield

Bear says

  • ↓Adverse Oregon weather cut EBITDA guidance by $55 M, underscoring seasonality risk
  • ↓Integration challenges from recent acquisitions may dilute expected synergies
  • ↓87% of backlog tied to public projects, exposing revenue to funding shifts
  • ↓Rising short interest and weak momentum reflect bearish market sentiment
  • ↓Negative dividend yield and low liquidity deter income-focused investors
  • ↓Oil-price sensitivity could compress margins if energy costs decline

Investment themes with KNF

Infrastructure Development↑ +0.48%

DE · HWM · TT

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-09-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we have about 190 million, almost 200 million of available liquidity when you look at our revolver, which allows us to react quickly if an opportunity does come up.
  • We have about a two-thirds conversion rate, which means from EBITDA to cash flow from operations, we convert about two-thirds of that to cash flows from operations, which we put to work in the company.
  • as we get towards the end of the year and pay down that revolver, have those cash flows come in, we think we're going to be at or below that net leverage of 2.5 times, which creates bandwidth for us to continue to support our growth program.

Bear points

  • I think with the gas tax holidays, I would say that's immaterial and that's not something that we're concerned about.
  • Margins were down for the quarter, but similar to asphalt, the first quarter historically represents a small portion of annual contracting services revenue.
  • it's 2% lower than it was year over year.
Read full transcript analysis ›