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Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV

KOF
$103.25USD↑+1.19%+1.21 today

MARKET CAP

14.6B

P/E (TTM)

9.4x

FWD P/E

8.3x

DAY RANGE

$102 – $104

52W RANGE

$79
$114

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

KOF is in a Stage 3 distribution phase with flattening and declining short-term EMAs, trading below key moving averages. The medium-term bias is bearish, reinforced by a series of lower highs and failed breakouts around the 9/21 EMA zone, and heavier volume on down-days. Short-term timing remains favorable for bearish execution as rallies are consistently rejected at declining EMAs, suggesting execution now on minor relief bounces into those EMAs. The long-term uptrend remains intact per the rising 200-DMA but is secondary to the intermediate weakness.

  • ↑Dividend yield of 3.84% underscores robust free cash-flow generation
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 12.8% YoY to drive operating margin of 17.6%
  • ↓IEPS excise tax forecast to reduce volumes by low-mid single digits
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: KOF) is a leading beverage bottler in Latin America and the largest franchise bottler for Coca-Cola products. The company operates in various markets, focusing on non-alcoholic beverages and leveraging its strong brand affinity and extensive distribution network. KOF is positioned within the wider theme of consumer staples, particularly benefiting from the growing demand for non-alcoholic options amid increasing health consciousness among consumers.

Bull says

  • ↑Dividend yield of 3.84% underscores robust free cash-flow generation
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA rose 12.8% YoY to drive operating margin of 17.6%
  • ↑December 2025 volume hit 1.09bn cases, fueled by Coke Zero rollout
  • ↑South America volumes grew 3%, offsetting Mexican market headwinds
  • ↑CapEx guidance cut to 7–7.5% of revenue in 2026 from 8.2%
  • ↑Digital and efficiency initiatives aim to boost operational resilience

Bear says

  • ↓IEPS excise tax forecast to reduce volumes by low-mid single digits
  • ↓Negative quality score flags balance-sheet strains and financial risk
  • ↓Analyst revisions turn negative, signaling profit outlook deterioration
  • ↓Institutional ownership is low, indicating weak investor conviction
  • ↓Morningstar $93.87 target implies roughly 12.6% downside potential
  • ↓Cost pressures and price elasticity risks threaten margin stability

Investment themes with KOF

Mexico↑ +0.16%

Nearshoring hub driving manufacturing and consumer growth

EWW · CX · GMBXF

Earnings Call · Q4 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-10-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Revenues increased 1.6% to MXN 42.2 billion, driven mainly by revenue growth management initiatives that were partially offset by unfavorable mix and currency translation effects into Mexican pesos.
  • On a currency-neutral basis, revenues increased 3.3%.
  • Gross profit increased 2.6% to reach MXN 20.8 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 49.2%, a 40 basis point expansion year-on-year. This margin increase was driven mainly by lower raw material costs such as sugar and PET, coupled with the appreciation of the Mexican peso as applied to our U.S. dollar-denominated raw material costs.

Bear points

  • Operating income in the division declined 1.1% to MXN 6.9 billion, and our operating margin contracted 40 basis points to 16.3%.
  • normalized operating income would have declined 8.1%, resulting in an operating margin contraction of 170 basis points. This contraction was driven mainly by an increase in marketing, depreciation and labor, coupled with a lower operative foreign exchange gain as compared to the previous year.
  • recorded an expense of MXN 1.4 billion as compared to an expense of MXN 980 million during the same period of the previous year.
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