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/LITE
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Lumentum Holdings Inc

Lumentum Holdings Inc

LITE
$732.82USD↑+3.77%+26.59 today

MARKET CAP

57.0B

P/E (TTM)

121.7x

FWD P/E

41.2x

DAY RANGE

$651 – $747

52W RANGE

$98
$1,086

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

LITE is entrenched in a Stage 4 decline with clear lower highs and lower lows beneath falling EMAs, reinforcing a bearish medium-term bias despite a longer-term uptrend. Short-term conditions are extreme oversold with exhaustion signals at the 200-DMA support, making fresh selling ill-timed. Preferred execution is to trim into any relief rallies back toward the declining 9/20 EMA zone and 50-DMA resistance.

  • ↑Q3 FY26 revenue $808 M, +90% YoY driven by transceivers and laser chips.
  • ↑Q4 revenue guidance of $960 M–$1.01 B targets another quarterly high.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and low book-to-price signal overvaluation risk.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) is a leading provider of optical and photonic products, focusing on telecommunications, data centers, and industrial laser markets. Positioned at the forefront of the optical communication sector, Lumentum is capitalizing on the surging demand for high-speed data solutions driven by AI and cloud infrastructure initiatives. The company has established a robust market presence, particularly within the hyperscale cloud sector, where its innovative transceivers and laser technology are essential for modern networking capabilities.

Bull says

  • ↑Q3 FY26 revenue $808 M, +90% YoY driven by transceivers and laser chips.
  • ↑Q4 revenue guidance of $960 M–$1.01 B targets another quarterly high.
  • ↑Non-GAAP operating margin rose to 32.2%, a 2140 bps YoY expansion.
  • ↑Systems revenue jumped 121% and components revenue +77% YoY.
  • ↑Positive momentum and rising analyst estimate revisions support growth outlook.
  • ↑14 Buy ratings and $1,012.67 consensus PT imply material upside.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative earnings yield and low book-to-price signal overvaluation risk.
  • ↓Persistent supply-demand imbalance for EML lasers may constrain sales.
  • ↓High capex of $125 M could pressure cash flow and margins.
  • ↓Reliance on a few hyperscale clients raises revenue volatility risk.
  • ↓Emerging low-cost competitors threaten market share in optical chips.
  • ↓Elevated stock volatility and liquidity sensitivity could trigger sharp swings.

Investment themes with LITE

Telecommunications↑ +0.98%

CSCO · VZ · T

Earnings Call · Q3 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-08-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Lumentum delivered an exceptional third quarter with revenue growing 90% year-over-year, reaching a record $808 million, primarily driven by our transceiver business and laser chips.
  • Our non-gap operating margin expanded by over 2,100 basis points year over year, fueled by a rich product mix and strong operating leverage.
  • Components revenue for the quarter was $533 million, reflecting a 20% sequential increase and 77% year-over-year growth.

Bear points

  • Despite these gains, supply constraints on critical components keep our shipments well below customer demand.
  • Third quarter non-GAAP operating expenses totaled $126.2 million or 15.6% of revenue an increase of $11.3 million from the second quarter and an increase of $22.8 million from the same quarter last year in support of expanding cloud opportunities.
Read full transcript analysis ›