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/LVWR
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LiveWire Group Inc

LiveWire Group Inc

LVWR
$0.69USD↓-4.86%-0.04 today

MARKET CAP

142.2M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$1 – $1

52W RANGE

$1
$6

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

LVWR remains entrenched in a Stage 4 decline with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirming a medium-term bearish bias. Price trades below the downward-sloping 9- and 21-EMA and is currently slightly oversold, suggesting limited further downside without a corrective rally. Optimal execution is to Sell Now into rallies and rejections at the 9/21-EMA zone. Primary risks include a decisive close above these EMAs or the emergence of a stabilization base that would invalidate the bearish posture.

  • ↑38% U.S. market share in >601cc segment with ~24K units sold.
  • ↑NA retail sales rose 14% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by touring and trike models.
  • ↓Consolidated revenue fell 12% YoY to $1.1B; EPS dropped from $1.07 to $0.22.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is a leading manufacturer in the motorcycle industry, renowned for its heavyweight motorcycles that are emblematic of American culture. The company operates primarily in the cruiser and touring segments and has a robust dealer network, emphasizing customer engagement and brand loyalty. Harley-Davidson is currently navigating challenges in the fast-evolving electric vehicle (EV) landscape and shifting consumer preferences, while also focusing on production and inventory management to enhance dealer profitability.

Bull says

  • ↑38% U.S. market share in >601cc segment with ~24K units sold.
  • ↑NA retail sales rose 14% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by touring and trike models.
  • ↑Sprint entry-level bike under $6,000 targets untapped younger demographic.
  • ↑Spent $128M on buybacks in Q1 and offers a 0.84% dividend yield.
  • ↑Management aims for $350M+ EBITDA by 2027 via cost savings and inventory cuts.
  • ↑Operating cash flow recovering; positive interest-rate sensitivity supports stability.

Bear says

  • ↓Consolidated revenue fell 12% YoY to $1.1B; EPS dropped from $1.07 to $0.22.
  • ↓Q1 operating loss of $23M and Q4 ’25 loss of $361M compress margins.
  • ↓Projected $75–90M in incremental tariffs in 2026 weighs on profitability.
  • ↓LiveWire EV sales +87% YoY but incur $70–80M operating losses.
  • ↓Weak profitability factors and low institutional ownership signal investor skepticism.
  • ↓Disruption risk high if new models fail to regain brand loyalty.

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-30-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Additionally, based on much feedback, we will begin to shift the model year timing to the fall to create additional selling opportunities later in the year.
  • We have also refined our flexible rewards program to improve its attainability and attractiveness.
  • We remain committed to a year-end dealer inventory reduction of approximately 10%, and we are well on our way, as already demonstrated, in Q1.

Bear points

  • consolidated revenue in the first quarter was down 23%, largely in line with expectations across HDMC and HDFS, while revenue also decreased at Livewire.
  • consolidated operating income in the first quarter was $160 million, driven by a decline of 51% at HDMC.
  • HDMC revenue decreased by 27% in Q1. Focusing on the key drivers for the quarter, 30 points of decline came from decreased wholesale volume at HDMC, where motorcycle shipments in the quarter were down 33%, coming in at 39,000 units. compared to 58,000 units in the year-ago period.
Read full transcript analysis ›