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LSB Industries Inc

LSB Industries Inc

LXU
$11.39USD↑+2.89%+0.32 today

MARKET CAP

819.4M

P/E (TTM)

13.9x

FWD P/E

6.9x

DAY RANGE

$11 – $11

52W RANGE

$7
$17

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowHigh

The asset is in a pronounced medium-term decline with active lower highs and lower lows pattern in Stage 4, price trading below declining EMAs amidst distribution bias. Short-term downtrend and EMA resistance favor immediate sell execution into rallies, despite extreme oversold readings. Long-term trend remains up but is overshadowed by sustained selling pressure. No mean-reversion setup is confirmed.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $200M, +42% YoY.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA $52M, +44% YoY.
  • ↓Natural gas costs >$3/MMBtu, pressuring margins.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

LSB Industries, Inc. (NYSE: LXU) is a leading producer in the agricultural chemicals sector, specifically focusing on nitrogen-based fertilizers such as ammonium nitrate and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). The company caters to both agricultural and industrial markets while actively pursuing growth initiatives in producing low-carbon ammonia solutions. Positioned strategically within the fertilizer supply chain, LSB Industries is increasingly adapting to market demands while navigating geopolitical challenges affecting global supply chains, particularly in the Middle East.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $200M, +42% YoY.
  • ↑Adjusted EBITDA $52M, +44% YoY.
  • ↑Q1 free cash flow $37M; 2026 FCF projected >$100M.
  • ↑Repurchased $32M senior notes, strengthening liquidity.
  • ↑CCS low-carbon ammonia project to add ~$15M EBITDA from 2027.
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong pricing power drive returns.

Bear says

  • ↓Natural gas costs >$3/MMBtu, pressuring margins.
  • ↓Negative profitability factors risk margin erosion.
  • ↓Middle East conflicts cause supply chain disruptions.
  • ↓El Dorado turnaround may significantly cut production.
  • ↓Farmer stress could dampen fertilizer purchase volumes.
  • ↓Price sustainability concerns amid potential demand weakness.

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-18-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • global demand for ammonia and urea has remained consistent. Despite some demand destruction in phosphates globally, fertilizer and industrial demand have been reasonably strong, supported by Indian domestic consumption and fertilizer and industrial upgrades globally.
  • We expect European natural gas prices to be increasingly elevated as they work to fill up their storage ahead of next winter. During this time we expect to be advantaged on US natural gas prices which has been incredibly resilient and affordable.
  • our industrial business is in a sold-out position, even with our improved production volumes. During the first quarter, we optimised our production mix to maximise ammonium nitrate spot sales at above typical market prices. This allowed us to support customers whose AN supply has been disrupted.

Bear points

  • the full extent of which is not yet fully known. These dynamics are additive to the existing supply challenges across global markets, including the reduced ammonia production in Trinidad, gas curtailments in India, outages in Australia, increasingly frequent drone strikes on Russian nitrogen plants, the potential export restriction of ammonia from China, as well as the ongoing export restriction of urea from China.
  • We believe the difficult margin environment for growers is resulting in limited risk taking and positioning of product throughout the supply chain.
  • We currently believe that the North American market is at risk of being short nitrogen due to uncertainty around forward urea imports. Urea pricing has strengthened since the end of February due to the Iranian conflict and the Strait of Hormuz issues, and the US has consistently priced at a discount relative to the rest of the world, putting import volumes for late April and May at risk.
Read full transcript analysis ›