Lumida
/MAX
⌘K
Mediaalpha Inc

Mediaalpha Inc

MAX
$14.12USD↑+0.28%+0.04 today

MARKET CAP

880.4M

P/E (TTM)

22.1x

FWD P/E

11.9x

DAY RANGE

$14 – $14

52W RANGE

$7
$15

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

The asset remains in a Stage 2 advance within a secular uptrend, but the active Parabola acceleration has extended price well above rising EMAs into extreme overbought territory. Immediate entries carry heightened exhaustion risk. Optimal execution is deferred until price pulls back into the zone of the 9/20 EMAs and prior pivot support for a structurally sound continuation opportunity.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $310M (+26% YoY) exceeded guidance high-end
  • ↑P&C transaction value up 116% YoY, reflecting higher carrier spend
  • ↓FTC compliance payment $45M may constrain capital allocation
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

MediaAlpha Inc. (NYSE: MAX) operates a technology-driven marketplace that connects consumers with insurance carriers through performance-based marketing, operating primarily within the property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector. The company has established a significant presence in the insurance industry, focusing on leveraging proprietary data and artificial intelligence to enhance customer acquisition and streamline distribution channels. With a unique vantage point amidst the ongoing digital transformation in insurance advertising, MediaAlpha is positioned to capture evolving consumer behavior trends.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue $310M (+26% YoY) exceeded guidance high-end
  • ↑P&C transaction value up 116% YoY, reflecting higher carrier spend
  • ↑FY26 free cash flow expected at $90–100M post-FTC payment
  • ↑Repurchased 2.6M shares ($25M) under $100M buyback authorization
  • ↑Analyst earnings revisions positive, signaling better-than-expected outlook
  • ↑Developing AI-driven shopping proof-of-concept to boost growth

Bear says

  • ↓FTC compliance payment $45M may constrain capital allocation
  • ↓Health vertical transaction value declined ~40–45%, pressuring revenue
  • ↓Low earnings yield signals potential operational inefficiency
  • ↓Intense P&C competition could pressure margins amid rate cuts
  • ↓High short interest indicates prevailing bearish investor sentiment
  • ↓Rising automotive tariffs risk reducing carrier ad budgets

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 06-14-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Transaction value for Q1 was $473 million, up 116% year-over-year, driven by 200% year-over-year growth in our P&C vertical.
  • Q1 adjusted EBITDA doubled year-over-year to $29.4 million, representing 67% of contribution, up from 52% in the prior year.
  • Looking forward to Q2, we have seen continued strength in P&C carrier marketing investments, particularly among those maintaining profit margins at or above their target levels. Accordingly, we expect P&C transaction value levels to grow approximately 65% to 75% year over year.

Bear points

  • Transaction value in our health vertical was down 17% year-over-year, in line with expectations.
  • In our health vertical, we expect transaction value to be down 25% to 30% year over year. It's improving trends in Medicare for more than offset by a significant decline in under 65 as we scale back parts of that business.
  • automotive tariff development may put pressure on profitability as the year progresses
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