The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is a leading global entertainment and hospitality company known for its integrated resorts, which combine gaming, dining, retail, and entertainment across various locations, including Las Vegas and Macau. The company has adapted to the evolving market landscape by developing both physical destinations and digital platforms, particularly through its BetMGM venture, capitalizing on the expanding iGaming and sports betting sectors. MGM's strategic emphasis on luxury and exclusive offerings positions it favorably within the competitive landscape, as consumer preferences shift towards premium experiences.
Bull says
- ↑Q1 2026 revenue grew 4% to $3.2B, led by Las Vegas group bookings
- ↑BetMGM posted Q1 EBITDA of $22M and aims for $500M annual EBITDA
- ↑Share repurchases of $90M in Q1 reduced share count by ~50%
- ↑Over 90% of target conventions contracted, driving mid-single-digit group growth
- ↑High earnings yield and favorable book-to-price ratio suggest undervaluation
- ↑Strong liquidity and institutional ownership bolster technical sentiment
Bear says
- ↓Segment-adjusted EBITDA fell by $62M, driven by $37M Las Vegas self-insurance costs
- ↓Negative profitability factors highlight inefficient revenue-to-profit conversion
- ↓High volatility profile risks sudden price swings and investor uncertainty
- ↓Weak growth outlook raises doubts on sustaining revenue expansion
- ↓Balance sheet vulnerabilities and self-insurance expense growth pose long-term risks
- ↓EPS guidance cut to $0.60 for Q2 vs. $0.79 prior year
Investment themes with MGM
Companies repurchasing their own shares
Stocks with high volatility relative to market
Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance
Transcript signals
Bull points
- We're encouraged by the incremental momentum driven by our all-inclusive program, as well as the convention strength we have on the books.
- Our regional operations proved resilient in the first quarter, exhibiting top-line growth of 2%.
- we continue to have confidence in the total addressable market, and we may drive investment beyond our original guidance, reflecting regulatory and tax developments, as well as competitive intensity as we pursue our long-term share objectives.
Bear points
- Segment-adjusted EBITDA decreased by $62 million, which can be explained by just two items: an increase in self-insurance expense of $37 million, and a decrease in business interruption proceeds of $31 million versus last year.
- segment-adjusted EBITDA decreased by $20 million, in part due to an increase in self-insurance expense of $9 million and a decrease in business interruption proceeds of $10 million versus last year.
- Midweek is still a challenge. Now, the good news is it's like those two properties represent about 6% of our overall EBITDA. On the weekends, we are fine. The balance of the portfolio is performing from fine to good.