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Molina Healthcare Inc

Molina Healthcare Inc

MOH
$225.37USD↑+0.24%+0.55 today

MARKET CAP

12.1B

P/E (TTM)

32.6x

FWD P/E

31.2x

DAY RANGE

$220 – $227

52W RANGE

$121
$245

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

MOH is in a Stage 3 distribution regime with bearish medium-term structure following a decisive Support Failure. Price has broken below key short-term EMAs with follow-through, indicating rejection and continuation of the downtrend. Relative weakness versus benchmarks and rolling EMAs reinforce bearish conviction. With EMAs now acting as resistance, short-term timing favors selling on rallies. Under a Speculative approach, we favor rapid sell-side engagement rather than waiting for deeper pullbacks.

  • ↑Q1 premium revenue $10.2B, EPS $2.35 tops $1.57 est.
  • ↑Secured $6B Florida contract enhances incremental revenue pipeline.
  • ↓Elevated medical cost trends pressurize MCR at 91.1%, squeezing margins.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: MOH) operates as a managed care organization specializing in Medicaid and Medicare programs. The company targets low-income individuals and families with its healthcare solutions, positioning itself strategically within the healthcare value chain to benefit from legislative shifts and changes in the Medicaid landscape. Molina is currently navigating a competitive environment while maintaining a focus on integrated care solutions and operational efficiency.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 premium revenue $10.2B, EPS $2.35 tops $1.57 est.
  • ↑Secured $6B Florida contract enhances incremental revenue pipeline.
  • ↑Targets ≥$5 EPS by 2026, guiding clear path to margin expansion.
  • ↑MCR at 91.1% shows strong cost control amid medical inflation.
  • ↑1.13x book-to-price ratio signals undervaluation relative to assets.
  • ↑Positive earnings revisions and high liquidity support growth stability.

Bear says

  • ↓Elevated medical cost trends pressurize MCR at 91.1%, squeezing margins.
  • ↓6% Medicaid membership decline forecast reduces premium revenue base.
  • ↓Trailing P/E of 71.9x and negative earnings yield indicate overvaluation.
  • ↓State regulatory changes risk execution complexity and rate adequacy.
  • ↓Negative profitability and growth factors point to lower returns.
  • ↓Low institutional ownership and high volatility raise investor caution.

Investment themes with MOH

Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC
Health Care Providers↓ -0.61%

UNH · CVS · HCA

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We reported about 20% of our mix was bronze this year, which is up a little bit since last year. We're at silver, 50%, and gold, almost 30%. What's interesting about gold is a lot of states have shifted their metallics such that gold becomes just as attractive as silver.
  • at approximately $42 billion of premium revenue and at least $5 in adjusted earnings per share.
  • We feel confident in our 5% medical cost trend assumption for 2026.

Bear points

  • If we feel we won't be successful doing that, we will terminate the business and terminate the product for next year. So either way, we will be out of the traditional MAPD product for 2027.
  • We cited a drag on this year's earnings due to the MAPD product. I think we cited as producing $1 earnings per share drag. That won't repeat next year.
  • Medicaid membership attrition increased slightly, but the associated revenue loss is projected to be offset by a higher revenue in the marketplace.
Read full transcript analysis ›