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Mosaic Co

Mosaic Co

MOS
$22.13USD↓-1.78%-0.40 today

MARKET CAP

7.0B

P/E (TTM)

12.2x

FWD P/E

13.7x

DAY RANGE

$22 – $23

52W RANGE

$20
$38

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

MOS is in an early Stage 1 consolidation with a Bullish Pivot Point pattern signaling structural repair and downside failure. Mean-reversion eligibility enforces a bullish medium-term bias despite the long-term downtrend. However, price is extended above the rising short-term EMAs with neutral RSI and no clear entry edge. Execution should be deferred, stalking for a pullback into the 9/21 EMA zone or a retest of the pivot region before engaging.

  • ↑Q1 2026 phosphate sales hit 1.9 M tons, highest in five years.
  • ↑Global phosphate supply tightness supports pricing power.
  • ↓Tight supply chains and rising raw-material costs hinder operations.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), a leading player in the fertilizers sector, is primarily engaged in the production and marketing of potash and phosphate crop nutrients crucial for global agriculture. Operating extensively across North America and emerging markets such as Brazil and India, Mosaic positions itself to capitalize on rising global demand for fertilizers. The company remains notably agile amidst geopolitical tensions that impact raw material availability, emphasizing long-term investments in its phosphate and potash assets.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 phosphate sales hit 1.9 M tons, highest in five years.
  • ↑Global phosphate supply tightness supports pricing power.
  • ↑Expected working capital release of $300–500 M in 2026 boosts cash flow.
  • ↑Biosciences revenues forecast to double to $136 M by 2026.
  • ↑Dividend yield 1.44% and 13F ownership 0.67 indicate institutional support.
  • ↑High book-to-price and oil-sensitivity factors point to value upside.

Bear says

  • ↓Tight supply chains and rising raw-material costs hinder operations.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and weak profitability pressure margins.
  • ↓Analyst EPS revisions trending lower signal deteriorating sentiment.
  • ↓High short interest underscores bearish investor outlook.
  • ↓Farmer affordability issues compress phosphate margins.
  • ↓Potential US duties and geopolitical risks could impair competitiveness.

Investment themes with MOS

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Agriculture↑ +0.85%

Farming, crop production, and global food supply

DE · CTVA · ADM

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-11-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Mosaic remains focused on a disciplined capital allocation and reallocation strategy. In addition to adjusting our operating plan, investing in our phosphate assets, and optimizing our strong potash business, we're also shifting capital away from underperforming assets toward better opportunities.
  • we sold 1.9 million tons in the first quarter as deferred demand from the end of 2025 returned. This was the highest quarterly sales volume total for the segment in five years and reflection of the broad market access that allows us to position product where it's needed.
  • Mosaic Biosciences continues to grow rapidly despite the financial pressure on farmers, a clear indication that our products are delivering on their value proposition.

Bear points

  • Raw material prices and availability, especially for sulfur, are forcing us to revisit our production plan.
  • Given this environment, we're reviewing our 2026 global production plan for phosphates and taking initial steps to curtail production.
  • Our phosphate finished goods inventory declined by roughly $120 million in the first quarter, although this was offset by product positioning in Brazil ahead of seasonal demand later this year.
Read full transcript analysis ›