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MGIC Investment Corp

MGIC Investment Corp

MTG
$29.47USD↑+0.79%+0.23 today

MARKET CAP

6.2B

P/E (TTM)

9.3x

FWD P/E

9.2x

DAY RANGE

$29 – $30

52W RANGE

$25
$30

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

MTG remains in a Stage 2 advancing regime with a bullish medium-term bias underpinned by a momentum breakout and rising EMAs. However, price is extended above EMAs and in extreme overbought territory, signaling pullback risk. We prefer to defer entries and stalk for pullbacks into the rising 9/20 EMA support zone, in line with the Free Cash Flow + Buybacks strategy.

  • ↑Net income of $165 M (+10% YoY) and ROE of 13%.
  • ↑NIW rose 41% YoY to $14 B, fueling recurring premium revenue.
  • ↓Weak growth factors and declining EPS revisions suggest revenue risk.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) is a leading provider of private mortgage insurance in the United States, facilitating low down payment homeownership. The company plays a crucial role in enabling access to mortgage financing while maintaining a high-quality insurance portfolio and navigating macroeconomic challenges. As part of the housing finance sector, MGIC is positioned within the broader theme of housing affordability, which remains a significant concern for many prospective homebuyers.

Bull says

  • ↑Net income of $165 M (+10% YoY) and ROE of 13%.
  • ↑NIW rose 41% YoY to $14 B, fueling recurring premium revenue.
  • ↑Implemented $750 M share buyback and paid $400 M dividend.
  • ↑Reinsurance programs reduced required assets, bolstering stability.
  • ↑Strong earnings yield and book-to-price ratio with low leverage.
  • ↑Management optimistic on refinance-driven growth if rates fall.

Bear says

  • ↓Weak growth factors and declining EPS revisions suggest revenue risk.
  • ↓Dividend payout at 123% of net income strains capital.
  • ↓High rate sensitivity may limit new insurance written volumes.
  • ↓Competitive and regulatory pressures threaten insurance-in-force growth.
  • ↓Elevated short interest signals investor skepticism and price pressure.
  • ↓Sustained high rates and policy changes could curb MI demand.

Investment themes with MTG

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-30-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • 76 cents per diluted share compared to 75 cents per diluted share last year
  • Our re-estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $31 million of favorable loss reserve development in the quarter, primarily due to delinquency notices received in 2025
  • Cure rates on those delinquency notices have exceeded our expectations, and we have adjusted our ultimate loss expectations accordingly

Bear points

  • Our count-based delinquency rate increased 14 basis points year-over-year and one basis point in the quarter
  • Seasonal trends, which are historically a tailwind of mortgage credit performance in the first quarter, were less pronounced this year
Read full transcript analysis ›