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/MTH
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Meritage Homes Corp

Meritage Homes Corp

MTH
$74.17USD↓-4.22%-3.27 today

MARKET CAP

4.9B

P/E (TTM)

13.6x

FWD P/E

12.5x

DAY RANGE

$74 – $79

52W RANGE

$58
$85

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

MTH remains in a long-term uptrend as a Stage 2 advance, but recent corrective pullbacks have left price below the short EMAs, which are now acting as resistance. The rising 50-day SMA supports the medium-term structure, yet mixed momentum and a neutral overbought/oversold context offer no clear entry. Execution should be deferred, stalking for stabilization and acceptance on pullbacks into the EMA zone or 50-day SMA before engaging.

  • ↑Community count grew 19% YoY to 345, targeting 5–10% further growth by 2026
  • ↑Backlog conversion at 254% highlights operational efficiency and strong demand
  • ↓Home closing revenue fell to $1.1B in Q1 (–17% YoY) and EPS dropped 51% to $0.82
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is a leading homebuilder in the U.S., primarily focusing on affordable and energy-efficient housing solutions. The company strategically positions itself in key U.S. markets, particularly within the Sunbelt states, which are experiencing robust demand. Meritage's emphasis on quick closings and move-in-ready homes reflects its adaptability to current market dynamics and changing consumer preferences, especially in the entry-level homebuyer segment.

Bull says

  • ↑Community count grew 19% YoY to 345, targeting 5–10% further growth by 2026
  • ↑Backlog conversion at 254% highlights operational efficiency and strong demand
  • ↑Q1 share buybacks of $130M and a 12% dividend increase to $0.48/share enhance shareholder returns
  • ↑P/E of 13.1 and high earnings yield suggest the stock is undervalued versus peers
  • ↑Focus on affordable, energy-efficient homes in high-growth Sunbelt markets supports resilience

Bear says

  • ↓Home closing revenue fell to $1.1B in Q1 (–17% YoY) and EPS dropped 51% to $0.82
  • ↓Gross margin compressed to 17.5% (–400bps YoY) due to higher lot costs and incentives
  • ↓Negative growth and revisions scores signal weakening future revenue expectations
  • ↓Elevated use of sales incentives risks further margin erosion amid soft demand
  • ↓High sensitivity to interest rates reduces buyer affordability and sales velocity
  • ↓Low profitability and weak institutional ownership scores indicate investor concerns

Investment themes with MTH

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • I can see going into 2027 with a much different sort of competitive inventory environment.
  • We started the year with 336 active communities, which we then grew to 345 by March 31st, another company record.
  • We reiterate our expectations of 5% to 10% full-year community account growth for 2026.

Bear points

  • First quarter 2026 orders were 5% lower year over year, primarily due to an 18% decline in average absorption pace,
  • Our first quarter 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6 compared to 4.4 in the prior year.
  • we've moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land.
Read full transcript analysis ›