Lumida
/NCMI
⌘K
National Cinemedia Inc

National Cinemedia Inc

NCMI
$3.78USD↓-4.06%-0.16 today

MARKET CAP

354.5M

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

29.5x

DAY RANGE

$4 – $4

52W RANGE

$3
$5

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

NCMI is in Stage 2 advancing with sequential higher highs and higher lows and rising EMAs, supporting a medium-term bullish bias. However, a Bullish Exhaustion pattern at new highs, overbought RSI, and elevated Options Score signal short-term exhaustion and warrant deferred entry. The preferred execution is on a pullback into the rising 9/21 EMA zone within the breakout area. The long-term downtrend remains intact until the 200 DMA is reclaimed, so focus remains on tactical timing rather than a full regime shift.

  • ↑Attendance +15% YoY to 83M; domestic box office +25% YoY
  • ↑Programmatic ad revenue +100% YoY unlocking new advertiser budgets
  • ↓Adjusted OIBDA negative $10.5M highlights ongoing operational strain
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

National CineMedia Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) operates as a leader in the cinema advertising industry, connecting brands with audiences across numerous theaters in the United States. The company capitalizes on a mix of traditional cinema advertising and innovative programmatic solutions to diversify its income streams while navigating the cyclical nature of the theatrical industry. As audiences gradually return to theaters post-pandemic, NCMI's strategic initiatives are designed to enhance advertiser engagement and operational efficiency, positioning the company within the narrative of the resilient recovery in consumer demand for cinema experiences.

Bull says

  • ↑Attendance +15% YoY to 83M; domestic box office +25% YoY
  • ↑Programmatic ad revenue +100% YoY unlocking new advertiser budgets
  • ↑Operational transformation targeting $11M annual cost savings
  • ↑Q1 revenue $34M aligned with guidance; free cash flow $18.1M
  • ↑Dividend reinstated at $0.03/sh (5.6% yield); repurchased 210K shares
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong growth metrics signal value upside

Bear says

  • ↓Adjusted OIBDA negative $10.5M highlights ongoing operational strain
  • ↓Total ad revenue $31.9M vs $32.3M last year, reflecting declines
  • ↓Utilization dropped 22% on harder-to-monetize film mix, pressuring yields
  • ↓Weak profitability factors raise doubts on sustainable margins
  • ↓Analyst revisions trending downward, dampening investor sentiment
  • ↓High economic sensitivity risk and limited size/liquidity pose headwinds

Investment themes with NCMI

Others↑ +0.32%

Miscellaneous or uncategorized companies

ATAI · SVIX · SVXY

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-13-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We're expecting the upfront to be strong, and we have already gotten ahead of the curve on it. So we're optimistic about our share of the upfront growing year on year.
  • We entered the year with strong momentum from the holiday period, both in attendance and advertiser demand, and our first quarter played out largely as we anticipated.
  • The late quarter acceleration reinforces our view that 2026 is shaping up to be a more consistent and durable year for theatrical exhibition and positions as well as we enter into the second quarter.

Bear points

  • adjusted OIBDA of negative 10.5 million, both within the guidance ranges we provided last quarter.
  • Notably, Amazon reconfirmed its commitment to at least 15 theatrical releases per year, while Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery reiterated plans to release approximately 30 films theatrically, reinforcing confidence in a consistent industry cadence of future releases.
  • As a result, we expect to realize up to $6 million of savings in full year 2026.
Read full transcript analysis ›