Lumida
/ONB
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Old National Bancorp

Old National Bancorp

ONB
$26.74USD↓-2.02%-0.55 today

MARKET CAP

10.3B

P/E (TTM)

11.4x

FWD P/E

9.6x

DAY RANGE

$27 – $27

52W RANGE

$19
$27

AI Summary

Stalk
Buy NowHigh

Despite extreme overbought readings, ONB remains in a high-confidence Stage 2 advancing phase with a recent momentum breakout. Price is tightly tracking rising EMAs and has cleared key resistance near the 52-week high, signaling continuation potential. The dominant structural context and primary pattern imply fresh demand and expansionary bias. With EMAs aligned and momentum intact, execution favors buying now to participate in further upside.

  • ↑Q1 adjusted EPS $0.61, driven by 8% annualized loan growth and disciplined expense control.
  • ↑CET1 capital ratio improved to 10.74% post-Bremer merger; tangible book value per share up 15%.
  • ↓Profitability metrics weak; core profit conversion challenges may pressure margins.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is a regional bank focused on delivering a wide range of financial services, including commercial and retail banking. Following its recent merger with Bremer Bank, ONB is leveraging its enhanced market presence in the Midwest to pursue growth opportunities amidst a competitive financial services landscape. The bank emphasizes organic growth, operational efficiency, and maintaining strong credit quality as part of its strategic vision in the evolving economic environment.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 adjusted EPS $0.61, driven by 8% annualized loan growth and disciplined expense control.
  • ↑CET1 capital ratio improved to 10.74% post-Bremer merger; tangible book value per share up 15%.
  • ↑Returned $151 m to shareholders via buybacks and dividends at a 64% payout ratio; more planned.
  • ↑Loan pipeline rose 14% YoY to $5.5 bn, showing strong Midwest commercial lending demand.
  • ↑Investing in AI center and technology upgrades to boost operational efficiency.
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong book-to-price suggest attractive valuation with manageable leverage.

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability metrics weak; core profit conversion challenges may pressure margins.
  • ↓Negative revision momentum signals potential analyst downgrades and EPS cuts.
  • ↓Intense CRE competition (e.g., Nashville) could constrain loan growth and compress spreads.
  • ↓Net interest income outlook sensitive to rate swings; Q1 launch point below expectations.
  • ↓Negative short interest and 13F ownership reflect market skepticism and limited institutional demand.
  • ↓Smaller size limits liquidity; digital banking competitors and fintech pose disruption risk.

Investment themes with ONB

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Regional Banks↑ +0.50%

FLG · TCBI · ZION

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • record adjusted efficiency ratio this quarter of 45.7, which is great for your company, with potential to grind it lower as we continue to invest in talent, signaling our commitment to growth.
  • Earlier today, Old National reported first quarter 2026 earnings that exceeded our internal expectations and analyst estimates.
  • We carried strong momentum into the year, and our performance in the first quarter reinforces our confidence in the full year plan.

Bear points

  • to be an inhibitor to investing in our future, investing in growth, investing in talent. I think that's just the dynamics. We inherently know, like, if we're able to successfully convert this talent pipeline, you know, that's an 18-month, you know, kind of break-even scenario. And inevitably, the people that we're looking at hiring are kind of top decile performers. So they just come at a much higher cost on average. And so I don’t want that number of 45% to be a number that stops us from investing in our future or the growth of the organization.
  • it seems complicated. clear that the regulators are trying to encourage banks to be back in that business in a somewhat more meaningful way.
  • I think you'd see reduction in RWA, you know, roughly in line with what others have sort of estimated for mid-sized banks.
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