Progressive Corp

PGR is in Stage 3 distribution following a blow-off top, with a bearish medium-term bias as price has broken the prior advance under declining EMAs. Short-term timing is neutral since price remains below the sloping 9 and 21 EMAs and may require a bounce into resistance. We recommend trimming into rallies around the 9/21 EMA zone, using rejection at EMAs for optimal execution.

• ↑Gained 1.9pp personal auto share to 18.6% in 2025.
• ↑Comprehensive income ~$13B, 40% ROE and combined ratio <90.
• ↓Intense competition compresses pricing power and threatens margins.