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/PHM
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Pultegroup Inc

Pultegroup Inc

PHM
$126.08USD↓-2.28%-2.94 today

MARKET CAP

24.0B

P/E (TTM)

12.2x

FWD P/E

11.8x

DAY RANGE

$125 – $132

52W RANGE

$108
$144

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

PHM is in a Stage 3 distribution phase with a bearish medium-term bias. Despite a Bearish Exhaustion signal suggesting a potential bounce, price remains below declining 9 and 21 EMAs within a lateral range. Short-term timing is neutral as price rallies into EMA resistance. The preferred approach is to trim into the 9/21 EMA zone rather than initiate new positions.

  • ↑Active adult homes account for 24% of net new orders, showing resilient demand
  • ↑Land pipeline of ~250,000 controlled lots underpins ASP guidance of $560–570k
  • ↓First-time buyers struggle with stretched affordability, dampening entry-level demand
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is a leading homebuilder in the United States, focusing on the development of residential communities primarily tailored to first-time, move-up, and active adult buyers. Operating across diverse buyer segments and geographic markets, the company has strategically positioned itself to leverage growth amid fluctuating market conditions. PulteGroup benefits from a considerable land pipeline, ambitious growth initiatives, and a commitment to capital discipline, serving as a key player in the housing market's recovery amid ongoing economic challenges.

Bull says

  • ↑Active adult homes account for 24% of net new orders, showing resilient demand
  • ↑Land pipeline of ~250,000 controlled lots underpins ASP guidance of $560–570k
  • ↑Committed $2.1B to share repurchases, balancing growth with shareholder returns
  • ↑Q1 2026 gross margin held at 24.4% despite 10.9% incentives, indicating operational resilience
  • ↑Home sale revenues reached $3.3B in Q1 2026 and net new orders rose 3% YoY
  • ↑High earnings yield and strong quantitative fundamentals support valuation

Bear says

  • ↓First-time buyers struggle with stretched affordability, dampening entry-level demand
  • ↓Q1 gross margin fell to 24.4% from 27.5% YoY due to 10.9% incentives
  • ↓Weak profitability and growth metrics reflect cost pressures and slowing volume
  • ↓Elevated sensitivity to mortgage rates may reduce buyer traffic and closings
  • ↓Cancellation rate rose to 13% from 11% YoY, signaling demand instability
  • ↓Operational costs are vulnerable to energy price swings and inflation

Investment themes with PHM

Quality↑ +0.54%

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Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-24-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • In a quarter that grew increasingly more complicated, you delivered exceptional results, both operationally and financially.
  • Financially, our $3.3 billion in home sale revenues, 24.4% gross margins, and lower share count all contributed to driving earnings of $1.79 per share.
  • Operationally, we were successful in growing our community count, which was an important driver of our 3% increase in net new orders.

Bear points

  • However, on the lower leg of the K, first-time buyers continue to struggle with the challenges of stretched affordability and fear of job loss.
  • incentives in the quarter reach 10.9% of gross sales price.
  • We still have work to do in clearing some final spec inventory in California and Washington,
Read full transcript analysis ›