Pultegroup Inc

PHM is in a Stage 3 distribution phase with a bearish medium-term bias. Despite a Bearish Exhaustion signal suggesting a potential bounce, price remains below declining 9 and 21 EMAs within a lateral range. Short-term timing is neutral as price rallies into EMA resistance. The preferred approach is to trim into the 9/21 EMA zone rather than initiate new positions.

• ↑Active adult homes account for 24% of net new orders, showing resilient demand
• ↑Land pipeline of ~250,000 controlled lots underpins ASP guidance of $560–570k
• ↓First-time buyers struggle with stretched affordability, dampening entry-level demand