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Philip Morris International Inc

Philip Morris International Inc

PM
$192.98USD↑+1.65%+3.14 today

MARKET CAP

300.8B

P/E (TTM)

24.7x

FWD P/E

21.3x

DAY RANGE

$191 – $195

52W RANGE

$142
$195

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

PM is in a Stage 2 advancing regime with a recent breakout above horizontal resistance confirmed by strong volume. However, price is extended well above rising EMAs and shows extreme overbought conditions on the Options Score and RSI, making immediate entry unfavorable. Execution favors stalking pullbacks into the 9 and 21 EMA confluence or retest of the prior resistance zone near 182–184. Primary risk remains a failure to hold these support areas, which would signal exhaustion of the advance.

  • ↑Q1 2026 net revenues $10.15B (+9% YoY), fuelled by smoke-free sales
  • ↑Smoke-free volumes up 12.8% YoY; ZYN mix uplift drives growth
  • ↓Potential excise tax hikes on nicotine pouches could cut volumes
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is a leading global tobacco company transitioning from traditional combustible cigarettes to reduced-risk smoke-free products, including heated tobacco units (HTUs) and nicotine pouches like ZYN. The company is steadily transforming its business model, focusing on sustainable alternatives as consumer preferences shift towards less harmful options. PMI operates in a highly competitive environment, focusing on innovation in smoke-free alternatives to capture market share.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 net revenues $10.15B (+9% YoY), fuelled by smoke-free sales
  • ↑Smoke-free volumes up 12.8% YoY; ZYN mix uplift drives growth
  • ↑Gross margin above 70% in smoke-free segment, boosting profitability
  • ↑Adjusted EPS $1.96 (+16%), reflecting pricing power and efficiency
  • ↑Ongoing ZYN and HTU innovations with new flavors planned
  • ↑High profitability and large size factors underpin operational resilience

Bear says

  • ↓Potential excise tax hikes on nicotine pouches could cut volumes
  • ↓Cigarette shipments down 5.1% YoY; full-year volume decline of ~2% expected
  • ↓Overvalued stock relative to earnings capacity; concerning book-to-price ratios
  • ↓Negative analyst revisions limit price upside and signal fading momentum
  • ↓Extreme low liquidity suggests difficulty attracting new investment
  • ↓Intensifying competition in nicotine pouches may compress margins

Investment themes with PM

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 04-23-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • a much more positive dynamic for ZIN performance due to the normalization of comparison bases and the anticipated innovation launch in the coming months, which is expected to positively impact our performance.
  • Bonds by ICOS is, as I mentioned, a very nice evolution in line with what a leader should provide to the market.
  • We delivered a strong start to the year with outstanding growth from our international smoke-free business and very robust pricing driving impressive progress, despite a particularly strong prior comparison for both the U.S. and combustibles. Organic top line and operating income growth exceeded our expectations, driving plus 10% adjusted OI growth and plus 16% adjusted diluted earning pressure growth to reach $1.96.

Bear points

  • it might soon become a flattish volume or maybe even a declining volume number, assuming there are still delays in ZIN Ultra if I extrapolate the current trend. And clearly the PMTA timing is not in control.
  • Zin off-tech volumes grew by plus 10% despite an uneven competitive landscape. As anticipated, segment financial performance was challenging due to the specific combination of impact this quarter, including increased investment and the comparison to Q1 2025, which had close to no price promotion and significant ZIN inventory rebuild as we exited supply constraints.
  • Cigarette volumes declined at the high end of our expectation and above the international industry decline of 2.3%.
Read full transcript analysis ›