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Radian Group Inc

Radian Group Inc

RDN
$39.38USD↑+0.61%+0.24 today

MARKET CAP

5.2B

P/E (TTM)

8.7x

FWD P/E

7.4x

DAY RANGE

$39 – $40

52W RANGE

$32
$41

AI Summary

Stalk
StalkMedium

RDN is in a Stage 2 advancing uptrend supported by a confirmed momentum breakout, but price is now extreme overbought and extended well above rising EMAs. While the medium-term bias remains bullish, immediate entry is unfavorable. We defer execution until a healthier pullback into the 9/21 EMA region and prior resistance support zone to improve risk/reward.

  • ↑Q1 net income $129M (EPS $0.93), ROE 14.7% after acquisition.
  • ↑Intego acquisition ($1.7B) doubles revenue base; adds ~200 bp ROE, expands market 12×.
  • ↓Profitability metrics weak; revenue-to-profit conversion under pressure.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) operates primarily in the mortgage insurance sector and is transitioning into a global multi-line specialty insurer following its acquisition of Intego. With a strong focus on capital management and a robust enforcement portfolio, Radian aims to tap into various insurance markets and leverage its advanced data analytics for risk management, aiming to meet the evolving needs for homeownership and financial security.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 net income $129M (EPS $0.93), ROE 14.7% after acquisition.
  • ↑Intego acquisition ($1.7B) doubles revenue base; adds ~200 bp ROE, expands market 12×.
  • ↑Revenue rose 58% YoY to $466M; book value/share up 10% to $35.67.
  • ↑Capital returns: $600M dividends guidance for 2026; $50M buybacks in Q1; $3B returned since 2017.
  • ↑Liquidity $391M end-Q1 supports growth; default rates low with strong persistency.
  • ↑Factor strengths: high earnings yield, strong book-to-price, positive earnings revisions, low volatility.

Bear says

  • ↓Profitability metrics weak; revenue-to-profit conversion under pressure.
  • ↓Specialty insurance competition intensifies; pricing headwinds may erode margins.
  • ↓Intego integration risk: operational disruptions could hurt earnings.
  • ↓Short interest elevated; investor sentiment turning skeptical on growth outlook.
  • ↓Dividend yield score negative; inconsistent capital return may deter income investors.
  • ↓Factor concerns: negative size and liquidity scores signal less resilience in downturns.

Investment themes with RDN

High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↑ +0.48%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q1 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-03-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • Our results demonstrate the continued strength of our high-quality mortgage insurance enforced portfolio, as well as our ongoing strategic focus on capital and expense management.
  • We increased book value per share by 11% year-over-year, generating net income of $145 million in the first quarter and delivering a return on equity of 12.6%.
  • Our insurance in force benefited from the 86% persistency rate in the first quarter driven by continued elevated interest rates, which remains significantly higher than the majority of the prevailing mortgage rates in our insured portfolio.

Bear points

  • However, given the recent volatility in the financial markets resulting specifically from the uncertainties from tariff and global trade policies, we continue to closely monitor the impact on our business, including any changes to unemployment or other trends that may impact the credit environment.
  • we would change that if we see the macroeconomic scenario change drastically from where we are today.
Read full transcript analysis ›