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/RDW
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Redwire Corp

Redwire Corp

RDW
$8.45USD↑+0.00%+0.00 today

MARKET CAP

2.0B

P/E (TTM)

—

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$8 – $9

52W RANGE

$5
$27

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

RDW remains in Stage 4 decline with a medium-term bearish bias reinforced by the active Post-Parabola Collapse pattern signaling sustained selling pressure. Price is extended below the declining 9EMA and 20EMA in oversold territory, making immediate selling suboptimal. Optimal execution is to sell into a relief rally up into the declining EMA resistance zone.

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue rose 57.9% YoY to $97M, driven by strong bookings.
  • ↑Contract backlog jumped 71.1% YoY to $498.1M with a 1.92 book-to-bill.
  • ↓Q1 2026 net loss of $76.5M and adjusted EBITDA of –$9.2M.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) operates in the space and defense technology sector, focusing on delivering advanced space infrastructure and defense capabilities. The company has strategically positioned itself as a leader in this industry following the acquisition of Edge Autonomy, enabling it to enhance its multi-domain platform offerings. Redwire is capitalizing on the growing demand for innovative solutions in space exploration and defense technologies, particularly as global interest and investment in these sectors increase.

Bull says

  • ↑Q1 2026 revenue rose 57.9% YoY to $97M, driven by strong bookings.
  • ↑Contract backlog jumped 71.1% YoY to $498.1M with a 1.92 book-to-bill.
  • ↑R&D investment increased to $12.6M from under $1M to fuel innovation.
  • ↑UAS and space tech demand growing amid rising defense budgets.
  • ↑$175.2M liquidity position supports operations through investment cycles.
  • ↑High dividend yield and book-to-price ratio suggest potential undervaluation.

Bear says

  • ↓Q1 2026 net loss of $76.5M and adjusted EBITDA of –$9.2M.
  • ↓Negative earnings yield and elevated stock volatility reflect risk.
  • ↓Rising operating costs pressure margins despite robust sales growth.
  • ↓Heavy reliance on government contracts exposes revenue timing uncertainty.
  • ↓High leverage risk and weak profitability factors signal cash burn.
  • ↓Elevated short interest underscores market skepticism on turnaround.

Investment themes with RDW

Defense↓ -0.89%

Military equipment and defense contractors

BWXT · RKLB · CRS
Space↓ -0.99%

PL · GSAT · VSAT

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-10-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • One is to be the prime to build a lunar grid. We are a power company. We have, I believe, and I'm obviously biased, the best heritage there is out there in space power on the solar side with our ROSAs and now our ELSAs to include being the power provider with our ROSAs on the International Space Station.
  • Redwire is, in fact, a Clips Prime and Clips, the commercial lunar payload services contract, has been a key highlight for NASA Administrator Isaacman recently, where he sees that as ramping up. I think he mentioned one a month. So previously, Redwire wasn't really active on CLPS because we didn't have a baseline where we could achieve the economics that we wanted for the limited amount of launches that were occurring.
  • Andromeda opportunity is a significant milestone for us, as we have been selected as one of 14 vendors from 32 bids submitted, indicating our progress in moving up the value chain.

Bear points

  • EBITDA was still negative
  • Our first quarter of 2026 net loss was 76.5 million, which was impacted by more than 44 million in non-recurring activity, 42.5 million of which was the non-cash, non-dilutive impact from the accelerated vesting of the equity incentive units assumed through the edge autonomy acquisition.
  • Our first quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative 9.2 million, a decrease on a year-over-year basis, but a sequential increase.
Read full transcript analysis ›