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/REFI
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc

REFI
$10.62USD↓-2.12%-0.23 today

MARKET CAP

226.4M

P/E (TTM)

7.4x

FWD P/E

6.2x

DAY RANGE

$11 – $11

52W RANGE

$11
$15

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

REFI remains in a sustained Stage 4 decline with lower highs and lower lows and price well below all key EMAs and SMAs. The medium-term bias is bearish, supported by distribution volume and lack of stabilization, while a short-term relief bounce has not yet tested or been rejected at resistance. We defer selling until price approaches falling EMAs or key overhead levels for a higher-probability entry.

  • ↑Earnings yield of 1.34 and book‐to‐price at 1.79 signal value appeal.
  • ↑Dividend yield at 3.69% with 90%–100% payout supports steady income.
  • ↓Negative growth and revision trends signal weakening revenue outlook.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) operates at a unique intersection of real estate financing and the burgeoning U.S. cannabis sector. The company specializes in providing debt investments specifically tailored to cannabis operators, leveraging its expertise in navigating a complex regulatory environment. The firm maintains a strategic focus on lending in limited-license jurisdictions, providing capital solutions to an industry characterized by limited access to traditional financing, thereby positioning itself as a leading lender in a niche with limited competition.

Bull says

  • ↑Earnings yield of 1.34 and book‐to‐price at 1.79 signal value appeal.
  • ↑Dividend yield at 3.69% with 90%–100% payout supports steady income.
  • ↑$482 M pipeline of cannabis loans offers significant growth runway.
  • ↑Weighted average loan yield of 15.8% on $414 M portfolio boosts net interest spreads.
  • ↑Management views federal rescheduling as catalyst to enhance borrower cash flows.
  • ↑Profitability score reflects efficient portfolio management amid competitive lending.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative growth and revision trends signal weakening revenue outlook.
  • ↓10.7% of portfolio rated level 4+ risks elevated credit losses.
  • ↓Low institutional ownership and small size raise liquidity and volatility risks.
  • ↓Q1 net interest income fell 8% QoQ to $13.1 M, showing margin pressure.
  • ↓Consensus 'Reduce' rating with $14 target implies limited upside.
  • ↓Cannabis‐only focus heightens regulatory disruption and competition risk.

Investment themes with REFI

Mortgage REITs↑ +0.54%

NLY · AGNC · STWD

Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 05-11-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • As of March 31, our loan portfolio principal totals approximately $414 million across 25 portfolio companies with a weighted average yield to maturity of 15.8%
  • As of March 31, we're pleased to announce that we've moved the loan back to accrual status after three consecutive months of timely payment and demonstration of sustained performance improvement, which we expect to lead to the ability to continue to meet debt service obligations.
  • As of March 31, 2026, approximately 4.8% of our portfolio is on non-accrual status, a decrease from approximately 11.1% as of December 31, 2025, primarily relating to the restoration of loan number 9 to accrual.

Bear points

  • As of March 31, approximately 10.7% of our portfolio is risk-rated for or higher, compared with 4.8% as of December 31, 2025. This risk rating shift primarily attributed to loan number 36 being downgraded from 3 to a 4 contributed to an increase in CSER reserves of approximately 3.8 million.
  • Total leverage equaled 38% of book equity at March 31 compared to 32% as of December 31.
  • the Fed pausing the interest rate easing cycle following three consecutive rate cuts in Q4 of last year, and volatility caused by the Middle East conflict.
Read full transcript analysis ›