The case for & against
Bull & Bear analysis
Bullish
Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) is a leading player in the mining sector, primarily engaged in the extraction, production, and refining of copper and its by-products, including molybdenum, zinc, and silver. With operations predominantly in Peru and Mexico, Southern Copper is strategically positioned within the broader commodities market, capitalizing on global demand driven by renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, while also maintaining strong operational efficiencies and dividend payouts.
Bull says
- ↑Record net sales of $13.4B (+17% YoY) from higher copper and by-product prices.
- ↑Operating cash flow of $4.8B underpins 1.09% dividend yield consistency.
- ↑$20.5B capex program, including Tía Maria, to boost long-term output.
- ↑Expected 320K-ton copper market deficit by 2026 supports pricing strength.
- ↑High earnings yield and strong momentum highlight robust operational efficiency.
- ↑Leverage and positive oil-price sensitivity enable growth financing.
Bear says
- ↓Copper production forecast down 4.7% to 911,400 tons in 2026 due to lower ore grades.
- ↓P/E of 30.8×, ~42% above 5-year median suggests overvaluation risk.
- ↓Operating costs up 19% YoY, raising concerns over margin compression.
- ↓Illegal mining in Peru delays projects like Los Chancas, hindering growth.
- ↓High short interest and negative revisions signal bearish analyst sentiment.
- ↓Currency volatility and geopolitical risks may worsen cost and permit issues.
Investment themes with SCCO
High Dividend Yield↑ +0.32%
Companies paying above-average dividends
AVGO · JPM · XOM
Copper Miners↑ +1.51%
5713.T · BOL.ST · KGH.WA
Earnings Call · Q1 2026 · Mgmt. Guidance
Updated 02-18-2026neutral
Transcript signals
Bull points
- Our performance in year 2025 delivered new company records for net sales, adjusted EBITDA and net income. These milestones are a testament to the strength of our strategy, execution and commitment to sustainable growth.
- The combination of higher production volumes and better copper and by-product prices enabled us to achieve record sales of $13.4 billion. This is 17% more than in 2024, a record high for EBITDA of $7.8 billion, that's 22% on top of 2024 and net income of $4.3 billion, which is 28% higher than 2024.
- Looking into the metal markets and prices. For copper, the London metal copper price increased 21% from an average of $4.16 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $5.03 per pound this past quarter. For the COMEX market, we saw a 22% increase, averaging during the past quarter $5.15 per pound.
Bear points
- For 2025, copper production decreased 1.8% to 956,270 tons. This figure is 1% lower than our 2025 plan of 965,000 tons. Our year-on-year result reflects lower production at our Buenavista and the Peruvian mines, partially offset by a rise in production at our IMMSA and La Caridad mines.
- For 2026, we expect to produce 911,400 tons of copper, which represents a decrease of 4.7% compared to 2025 annual trend. This slight drop was primarily attributable to lower ore grades at our Peruvian operations.
- Our total operating cost and expenses increased $282 million, that is a 19% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The main cost increments were in workers' participation, purchased copper, inventory consumption and operation contractors and services.
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